Anyang vs Gwangju: match statistics

I predict an Anyang win (1): the hosts average 1.13 goals per home match, while Gwangju manage only 0.25 goals on the road. Defensively the visitors are weak — Gwangju concede 2.88 goals per away match and have 41 goals conceded this season, whereas Anyang concede 1.38 at home and only 19 in total. Chance creation and efficiency favor Anyang: hosts average 9.13 shots and 3.0 on target per game with a 12% conversion, versus Gwangju’s 7.5 shots, 1.88 on target and just 3% conversion; the visitors fail to score in 75% of away matches. In the last 5 matches Anyang scored 8 goals and average 1.6 points per game, while Gwangju have 1 goal and 0.4 points; combined with the xG differential (1.15 vs 0.94 in favor of Anyang and xG against 1.43 vs 1.71) this confirms the home-side advantage.

I predict No BTTS. Gwangju essentially do not score — seasonal goals average 0.25 and only 1 goal in the last 5 matches (0.2), with a shot conversion rate of just 3%, which sharply limits the away side’s chances of finding the net. Anyang have a clearly superior offense: seasonal average 0.67, 22 goals this season and 8 goals in the last 5 matches (1.6 avg), xG for 1.1 (last 5: 1.19) and an average of 2.67 shots on target, so the hosts are likely to score. Both teams are however vulnerable defensively — Gwangju concede 2.88 goals per match, Anyang 2.0, and xG against in the last 5 matches is 2.04 (Gwangju) and 2.07 (Anyang), which increases the risk of goals but does not guarantee BTTS due to Gwangju’s poor efficiency. Additionally, seasonal BTTS rates are low (33% Anyang, 25% Gwangju, league 48%), and away matches for Gwangju show 50% of games as over 2.5 goals without BTTS, therefore I assess No BTTS as more likely (approx. 70%).

On the season Anyang averages 0.67 goals per game and Gwangju 0.25, but in the last 5 matches Anyang scored 8 goals (1.6 avg) while Gwangju only 1 goal (0.2), indicating an improvement in the home side’s attack. xG for Anyang is 1.10 and for Gwangju 0.94, with xG against 1.96 (Anyang) and 1.71 (Gwangju), yielding expected goals of ~1.40 for Anyang and ~1.45 for Gwangju (total 2.85). Both teams have relatively high percentages of matches over 1.5 goals: 56% (Anyang) and 75% (Gwangju), and over 2.5 at 44%/63%, which translates into clear support for overs, particularly Over 1.5. Additionally, the hosts average 8.44 shots with an 8% conversion rate versus the visitors’ 7.5 shots and 3% conversion, and both sides concede many goals on the season (2.0 and 2.88), increasing the likelihood of further scoring. Based on this, the strongest and most probable signal is Over 1.5.

At half-time it is most likely to be a draw: the average goals by half-time are only 0.11 for Anyang and 0.13 for Gwangju, and the home side are level at the break in 67% of matches, indicating a high probability of a draw after 45 minutes. However, in the last 5 matches Anyang led at half-time in 60% (3 of 5) and record 0.8 goals by half-time versus 0.0 for Gwangju, so in the most recent form the hosts are more active early. After the break the case for Anyang is stronger: the hosts’ xG is 1.10 vs 0.94 for the visitors, more shots on target (2.67 vs 1.88) and higher shot conversion (8% vs 3%), and the average second-half goals are 0.56 for the hosts versus 0.13 for the visitors. Additionally, in the last 5 matches Anyang have won 40% of games while Gwangju have won 0%, and seasonally the visitors concede an average of 2.88 goals vs 2.00 for the hosts, so the best HT/FT pick appears to be draw at half-time and home win at full-time (X/1).