Apollon vs Paphos: match statistics

Apollon are top of the table and remain unbeaten this season: they have won 4 of 7 matches, with 3 wins and 2 draws in their last five. At home, they average 3 goals per match and boast a 26% shot conversion rate, giving them a clear edge in front of goal over Paphos, whose conversion rate away from home is 13%. The visitors are nevertheless dangerous: they have won all 3 away matches, conceding an average of just 0.33 goals, while their average away xG is 2.10 compared with Apollon's 1.55 at home. The hosts' defence gives opponents opportunities, conceding an average of 1.67 goals at home and yet to keep a clean sheet there. Despite Paphos' strong away form, I predict a narrow Apollon win, as their record over the last five matches is clearly better than the visitors': 3 wins and no defeats compared with 1 win and 2 defeats.

The strongest signal against both teams scoring comes from Apollon’s home matches: the hosts have yet to score in them, while Paphos have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their away games. Apollon have also kept a clean sheet in 67% of their home matches, although Paphos average 2.33 goals away from home, so the more likely reason for BTTS - No is the hosts’ lack of finishing. However, Apollon cannot be ruled out from breaking their scoring drought, as they create chances worth 1.93 xG at home and average 5.33 shots on target. Moreover, Apollon have averaged 2.8 goals across their last five matches, and BTTS has landed in 60% of the teams’ games. Despite these arguments in favour of goals at both ends, Apollon’s failure to score at home and the frequent clean sheets make BTTS - No a marginally stronger pick. This means at least one team is expected not to score; it does not necessarily mean a 0-0 draw.

Apollon have yet to score in their home matches, but they are creating chances worth an average of 1.93 xG and registering 5.33 shots on target per game, suggesting their finishing so far may understate their attacking potential. Paphos average 2.33 goals away from home, although their average has fallen to 1.0 across their last 5 matches. Apollon, meanwhile, have averaged 2.8 goals in their last 5 matches, with at least 3 goals scored in 80% of those games. Although all of Apollon's home matches so far have finished Under 2.5 goals, the attacking potential of both teams points to at least 2 goals. Therefore, Over 1.5 is a stronger pick than the higher lines, with a projected total of 2.90 goals.

The strongest signal points to a draw at half-time and a Paphos win at full-time: Apollon were level at the break in all 3 of their matches at home so far and failed to score before half-time in any of them. Paphos led at the break in only 1 of their 3 away games, so their advantage may not emerge from the outset. After the break, the visitors averaged 2.0 goals away from home and won all 3 second halves, while the hosts conceded an average of 0.67 goals in that period. Paphos also won all 3 of their away matches, scoring an average of 2.33 goals, while Apollon have yet to win any of their 3 home games. Confidence in the pick is tempered by Apollon's better form over their last 5 matches overall—3 wins compared with Paphos's 1—however, the home and away splits favour the X/2 scenario in the HT/FT market.