APS Bomet vs Gor Mahia: match statistics

APS Bomet come into this match on a run of 3 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 outings, while Gor Mahia have managed just one win and lost 3 times over the same period. Both teams scored 7 goals in those matches, but the hosts conceded just 2, compared with 12 by the visitors — a clear defensive advantage for APS Bomet. Gor Mahia sit higher in the table, in 2nd place compared with the hosts in 5th, and won their previous meeting this season 4:2, so their attacking threat should not be underestimated. Even so, the last-five-match record favours the hosts, particularly given the visitors’ difficulties in limiting the number of goals conceded. The data on chance quality and home or away performances do not provide a reliable basis for further differentiation, so APS Bomet’s edge in this prediction remains moderate.

In their last 5 matches, both teams averaged 1.4 goals per game, providing grounds to expect a goal from each side. Gor Mahia conceded as many as 2.4 goals per match over this period, giving APS Bomet, with an average xG of 1.59, a clear chance of scoring. The visitors have also created chances consistently: their average xG over their last 5 matches is 1.36, while APS Bomet allowed opponents chances worth an average xG of 1.46. BTTS - Yes landed in 80% of Gor Mahia's last 5 matches, compared with just 40% of APS Bomet's games, so the case for BTTS - Yes is moderate rather than decisive.

Over their last five matches, both teams averaged 1.4 goals scored, but Gor Mahia conceded 2.4 goals per game, compared with just 0.4 for APS Bomet. During this period, the hosts averaged 1.59 xG and the visitors 1.36 xG, pointing to scoring chances at both ends. The main case for a higher goal projection for APS Bomet is the opposition’s defence, which conceded 12 goals across five matches. At the same time, Over 2.5 goals landed in only 20% of the hosts’ recent matches, while the league average is 2.22 goals, making the higher line less convincing. With a projected total of 2.70 goals, Over 1.5 goals is the strongest pick. The visitors’ zero season figures were not treated as evidence that they pose no threat, as this is contradicted by their recent average of 1.4 goals scored.

The most likely HT/FT outcome is a draw at half-time followed by an APS Bomet win: the hosts were level at the break in 3 of their last 5 matches, scoring an average of just 0.2 goals before half-time over that span. After the break, they averaged 1.2 goals, while Gor Mahia conceded an average of 1.0 goal in second halves. The hosts’ recent record also supports a full-time win: they recorded 3 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 matches, compared with the visitors’ 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats; APS Bomet conceded an average of 0.4 goals per match, while Gor Mahia conceded 2.4. The possibility of the hosts taking a lead at the break remains a notable alternative, as the visitors were trailing at half-time in 2 of their last 4 matches. However, the hosts’ season averages—including 4 goals scored and a half-time lead—come from just one match, so they do not outweigh the broader sample’s indication of level first halves.