Araz vs Sabah: match statistics

Sabah go into the match in 2nd place in the table, while Araz sit 7th, and the visitors also won the only league meeting between the sides so far, by 2:0. In their last five matches, Sabah have recorded 3 wins and scored 10 goals—4 more than Araz, whose record stands at 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats. The visitors’ defence has also looked more solid in the short-term trend, conceding 4 goals compared with 5 for the hosts. Araz drew their only home match 0:0, failing to score despite registering 12 shots and 2 on target, which increases Sabah’s chances of maintaining a favourable result. The visitors’ superior attacking consistency and higher league position point towards an away win, although Araz’s cautious approach could increase the risk of a draw.

The BTTS pick is not stronger because only 38% of matches in the league end with both teams scoring, while in 75% of matches at least one side keeps a clean sheet. In their last five appearances, both Araz and Sabah recorded BTTS in 40% of matches, which also provides no edge to the both-sides-to-score scenario. During this period, Araz conceded an average of 1.0 goals and Sabah 0.8, while their average xG against figures were 1.44 and 1.28 respectively, suggesting that the defences may restrict their opponents to only a few chances. Sabah did average 2.0 goals per match across their last five fixtures, but Araz have recorded a clean sheet in 100% of their season data and conceded just 0.55 xG on average. Therefore, the most likely outcome remains BTTS - No, meaning that at least one team fails to score. This does not automatically imply a 0:0 draw or that neither team will score.

Data from the last five matches indicates a moderate goal-scoring profile: Araz averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, while Sabah scored 2.0 goals per game and conceded 0.8. However, both teams recorded Over 2.5 goals in only 40% and 60% of those matches, respectively, meaning four-goal outcomes are not their dominant scenario. The league average is just 2.25 goals, and only 38% of matches go Over 2.5 goals, further supporting a limitation on the final score. The teams’ latest attacking xG figures of 1.67 and 1.70 suggest goal-scoring potential, but the opponents’ defensive xG levels of 1.44 and 1.28 do not clearly point to an open game likely to produce four goals. Therefore, the strongest selection is Under 3.5 goals, as the projected total of 2.47 goals provides a clear safety margin.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Sabah win at the final whistle, as Sabah were level at the break in 80% of their last five matches. During this period, the visitors scored only 0.2 goals before half-time, but after the interval they averaged 1.8 goals and won the second half in 60% of their matches. Araz had a slightly better start, averaging 0.6 goals before the break compared with Sabah’s 0.2, but at the same time they were losing at half-time in 40% of their recent matches. Across their last five league fixtures, Sabah won 60% of their matches and averaged 2.0 goals, while Araz averaged 1.2 goals and recorded only a 40% win rate, further supporting the forecast of the visitors having the edge after half-time.