Arbroath vs Dunfermline Athletic: match statistics

Arbroath sit 4th, while Dunfermline Athletic are 7th, with the hosts collecting 7 points from their last five matches compared with the visitors’ 5. At home, Arbroath have not lost a single match, keeping a clean sheet in 100% of their appearances and conceding an average of 0 goals. Dunfermline are yet to score away from home, have won none of their two matches, and have failed to score in 100% of their away games. The visitors do create more chances, averaging 9 shots and recording an xG of 1.23, but their conversion rate stands at 0%, while their defence allows opponents an xG of 1.71. However, Arbroath’s limited attacking output—just 0.5 goals and an xG of 0.58 at home—increases the likelihood of a tight, low-scoring match.

The BTTS - No pick is strongly supported by Dunfermline’s poor attacking efficiency: they average less than a goal per match this season and have scored just 0.6 goals across their last five fixtures. The visitors have also failed to score in 100% of their away matches so far, while Arbroath have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games and concede an average of just 0.5 goals. The recent form of both teams further limits the chances of a goal exchange: BTTS has landed in only 20% of Arbroath’s last five matches and 40% of Dunfermline’s. The league records both teams scoring in just 35% of matches, with an average of 1.75 goals per game, which further supports a scenario in which at least one team fails to score. Arbroath have better conditions for finding the net, with a season xG of 1.49 against Dunfermline’s xG against of 1.71, but the key risk to BTTS remains the visitors’ very low goal output.

The match profile clearly points to a limited number of goals: both teams have recorded 100% of their matches below 2.5 and 3.5 goals in the available part of the season. In their last five appearances, Arbroath averaged 0.8 goals scored and 0.6 conceded, while Dunfermline scored 0.6 and conceded 1.0. The hosts have a strong case to score, with an average xG of 1.49, while their opponents allow an average of 1.71 xG; however, Dunfermline have yet to score a goal this season. Arbroath’s defence allows opponents just 0.79 xG per match, limiting the visitors’ potential despite their average of 1.23 xG created. The projected total of 1.85 goals gives the strongest edge to Under 3.5 goals, as at least four goals would be required for this bet to lose.

The strongest signal points to a draw at half-time followed by an Arbroath win: the hosts were level at the break in 3 of their last 5 matches, while Dunfermline were level in as many as 4 of 5. Both teams play very cautiously before half-time, averaging just 0.2 goals each across their last five matches, compared with Arbroath’s average of 0.4 goals and Dunfermline’s 0.6 goals in first halves. After the break, the hosts’ advantage grows: they average 0.6 goals scored and 0.4 conceded, while the visitors score 0.4 and concede 0.6. Arbroath also have clearly better overall form, with a 60% win rate and 2.0 points per match in their last five appearances, compared with Dunfermline’s 20% win rate. The hosts’ advantage is further supported by an xG of 1.49, while conceding only 0.79 xG to opponents; Dunfermline, meanwhile, have yet to score on average this season and have conceded 1.71 xG per match.