Arbroath vs St. Johnstone: match statistics

St. Johnstone sit 1st in the table, Arbroath 3rd. In the last 5 matches the visitors have 3 wins and 2 draws (avg 2.2 points per game), while the hosts have 1 win, 3 draws and 1 loss (avg 1.2 points per game). In attack St. Johnstone have scored 54 goals this season versus Arbroath’s 39; in the last five fixtures they have 7 scored and only 2 conceded, whereas Arbroath have 3 scored and 3 conceded. The visitors create significantly more chances: on average 14.47 shots and 4.93 on target per match versus the hosts’ 10.27 shots and 3.53 on target, and average xG For of 1.71 compared to 1.32 for Arbroath, indicating higher quality chances for St. Johnstone. Defensively the visitors are superior — they concede 0.8 goals on average away with xG Against 0.93 and keep 53% clean sheets, while Arbroath at home concede 1.0 goal on average with xG Against 1.14 and only 33% clean sheets. Considering the advantage in goals (54 vs 39), xG (1.71 vs 1.32), shot volume and better form (2.2 vs 1.2 pts/game), I favor a St. Johnstone win and estimate probabilities at around 55% for the visitors, 25% for a draw and 20% for the hosts.

Statistical analysis favors a 'No' outcome for BTTS. Seasonally Arbroath averages 1.94 goals per game and St. Johnstone 1.53, yet their season BTTS rates are only 44% and 47% respectively. Both teams record high clean sheet rates: Arbroath 50% and St. Johnstone 53%, against a league average of 65% matches with a clean sheet, which reduces the likelihood of both scoring. Arbroath’s last 5 matches show a clear drop in form — just 3 goals in five games (0.6 per match) versus 39 goals on the season, while St. Johnstone has 7 goals in the last 5 (1.4 per match) and concedes only 2 (0.4 per match), making it more likely that only St. Johnstone will score. Despite season xG of 1.87 for Arbroath and 1.71 for St. Johnstone, opposing mean xG of 0.8 and 0.93 and shots on target 5.31 and 4.93 do not offset the defensive advantage; therefore I assess BTTS probability at 40% and No BTTS at 60%.

The xG-based model shows: Arbroath has xG_for 1.87, St. Johnstone xG_for 1.71, with xG_against of 0.80 (Arbroath at home) and 0.93 (St. Johnstone away). Taking the average of the attack and the opponent’s defense yields expected goals of 1.40 for the home side = (1.87+0.93)/2 and 1.26 for the away side = (1.71+0.80)/2, total = 2.66. The Poisson distribution for an expectation of 2.66 gives approximately a 74% chance of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5), ~50% for at least 3 goals (Over 2.5) and ~28% for 4+ goals (Over 3.5). Seasonal metrics confirm this picture: Over 1.5 occurred in 63% of Arbroath’s matches and 67% of St. Johnstone’s matches, Over 2.5 in 50% and 47%, and Over 3.5 in 31% and 27%; additionally Arbroath scores 1.94 goals at home and concedes 0.69, St. Johnstone scores 1.53 away and concedes 0.80, and the both-teams-to-score rate is 44% / 47%. Therefore the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (ou_pred_line = 1.5, over) due to the expected 2.66 goals and an estimated ~74% probability, while the 2.5 line is essentially 50/50 and 3.5 clearly favors the under.

Arbroath led at the break in 8 of their matches so far (50%) and at home average 0.94 goals in the first half versus 0.38 conceded, which strongly increases the hosts’ chance to have a lead after 45 minutes. Additionally, Arbroath have higher xG (1.87 vs 1.71 for St. Johnstone) and a seasonal goals average of 1.94 compared to the visitors’ 1.53, and they collect on average 2.06 points per home game, so maintaining the lead to full-time is realistic. On the other hand, St. Johnstone are in better recent form over the last 5 matches (60% wins for the away side vs 20% for the hosts), which raises the probability of a turnaround or draw in the second half and therefore the X/1 and X/X Half-Time/Full-Time scenarios carry significant weight. Considering frequent home first halves with at least one goal (75% over0.5 HT) and a moderate probability of both teams scoring (BTTS 44–47%), the strongest signal from the data is Arbroath leading at the break and ultimately winning the match (1/1).