Aris vs Paphos: match statistics
Aris displays impressive home form with a 73% win rate and a +18 goal difference at their stadium, scoring an average of 2.55 goals per match. The hosts keep clean sheets in 55% of their home games and hold an xG advantage (2.01 vs 0.9), indicating dominance in home matches. Paphos, despite a solid league position, shows weaker away form with only a 55% win rate and an average of 1.55 goals per match on the road. The recent form of both teams is contrasting - Aris is going through a crisis (0 wins in their last 5 matches), while Paphos averages 2 points per match in the same period. The key factor is Aris' home advantage, where they historically perform significantly better. This, combined with their higher xG and average possession (56% vs 54%), gives them the edge, despite their poorer overall recent form.
Aris vs Paphos: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Aris played Paphos in First Division (Cyprus). The match was played on 1 March 2026. Final score: 2:2.
Current form
Aris: 0-2-3, 0.40 points/match. Paphos: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Aris scores 1.78 and concedes 0.96 goals per match. Paphos scores 1.74 and concedes 0.96. League average: 2.52 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Aris 43%, Paphos 43%. Over 2.5: Aris 52%, Paphos 52%. League level: BTTS 39%, Over 2.5 46%.
xG, shots and style
Aris has higher xG: 1.68 vs 1.44. Aris: 12.9 shots per match, Paphos: 10.9.
Match halves
Aris: half-time lead 43%, second-half goals 0.96. Paphos: half-time lead 52%, second-half goals 0.96.
Goals by minute
Aris: 76-90+ (13 goals). Paphos: 76-90+ (15 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
First Division: 2.52 goals per match, BTTS 39%, Over 2.5 46%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Aris displays impressive home form with a 73% win rate and a +18 goal difference at their stadium, scoring an average of 2.55 goals per match. The hosts keep clean sheets in 55% of their home games and hold an xG advantage (2.01 vs 0.9), indicating dominance in home matches. Paphos, despite a solid league position, shows weaker away form with only a 55% win rate and an average of 1.55 goals per match on the road. The recent form of both teams is contrasting - Aris is going through a crisis (0 wins in their last 5 matches), while Paphos averages 2 points per match in the same period. The key factor is Aris' home advantage, where they historically perform significantly better. This, combined with their higher xG and average possession (56% vs 54%), gives them the edge, despite their poorer overall recent form.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Aris | Paphos | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 39% | 41% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.36 | 0.39 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Paphos is 250% better for: last-5 form.
0.4 pts / match - Aris · 1.4 pts / match - Paphos
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Aris scores in 83% of matches (19 of 23 matches), while Paphos keeps a clean sheet in 48% (11 of 23 matches).
Paphos scores in 87% of matches (20 of 23 matches), while Aris keeps a clean sheet in 48% (11 of 23 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Aris
Over / Under - Paphos
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Paphos is 15% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.7 pts / match - Aris · 1.96 pts / match - Paphos
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Aris - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 43% of matches and wins 48%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Paphos - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 52% of matches and wins 61%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.4 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 20% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (13 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +8 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (15 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): +6 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Aris
Paphos
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (First Division).
Teams vs league
| Aris | Liga | Paphos | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.74 | 2.52 | ▲ 2.70 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 43% | 39% | ▲ 43% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 52% | 46% | ▲ 52% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 48% | 34% | ▲ 48% |
| Goal before half-time | • 70% | 71% | ▲ 74% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 83% | 80% | ▲ 83% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Aris 0 - 0 - 1 Paphos. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Aris vs Paphos?
The First Division match finished Aris 2:2 Paphos. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Aris vs Paphos?
Aris score 1.78 goals per game on average and Paphos 1.74. The First Division average is 2.52 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 46% of games. Both teams score in 43% of Aris's matches and 43% of Paphos's.
What form are Aris and Paphos in?
Over the last 5 games Aris have a 0-2-3 record (0.40 points per game) and Paphos 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Aris vs Paphos?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.