Arsenal vs Chelsea: match statistics
Arsenal, as the league leaders, display impressive home form with a 77% win rate at home and only 8% losses. The hosts score an average of 2.38 goals per match at home, conceding only 0.62 goals, resulting in a +23 goal difference in home matches. Despite good form in their last five matches (2.0 PPG), Chelsea have a significantly weaker away record – 46% wins and an average of 1.15 goals conceded away. A key factor is Arsenal's advantage in possession (58% vs 57%) and higher defensive efficiency at home (54% clean sheets). xG statistics also favor the hosts (1.84 vs 1.49 for Chelsea away), which, coupled with home support, gives Arsenal a real advantage. A draw remains possible due to Chelsea's solid form and their 31% draw rate away, but the hosts' advantage in key parameters makes them the favorite in this encounter.
Arsenal vs Chelsea: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Arsenal played Chelsea in Premier League (England). The match was played on 1 March 2026. Final score: 2:1.
Current form
Arsenal: 3-2-0, 2.20 points/match. Chelsea: 3-2-0, 2.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
Arsenal scores 2.00 and concedes 0.75 goals per match. Chelsea scores 1.78 and concedes 1.15. League average: 2.79 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Arsenal 50%, Chelsea 67%. Over 2.5: Arsenal 54%, Chelsea 63%. League level: BTTS 56%, Over 2.5 54%.
xG, shots and style
Arsenal has higher xG: 1.72 vs 1.59. Arsenal: 14.7 shots per match, Chelsea: 13.6.
Match halves
Arsenal: half-time lead 46%, second-half goals 1.29. Chelsea: half-time lead 48%, second-half goals 1.00.
Goals by minute
Arsenal: 46-60 (14 goals). Chelsea: 46-60 (12 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Premier League: 2.79 goals per match, BTTS 56%, Over 2.5 54%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-0. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Arsenal, as the league leaders, display impressive home form with a 77% win rate at home and only 8% losses. The hosts score an average of 2.38 goals per match at home, conceding only 0.62 goals, resulting in a +23 goal difference in home matches. Despite good form in their last five matches (2.0 PPG), Chelsea have a significantly weaker away record – 46% wins and an average of 1.15 goals conceded away. A key factor is Arsenal's advantage in possession (58% vs 57%) and higher defensive efficiency at home (54% clean sheets). xG statistics also favor the hosts (1.84 vs 1.49 for Chelsea away), which, coupled with home support, gives Arsenal a real advantage. A draw remains possible due to Chelsea's solid form and their 31% draw rate away, but the hosts' advantage in key parameters makes them the favorite in this encounter.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Arsenal | Chelsea | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 34% | 34% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.40 | 0.38 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Arsenal is 12% better for: goals scored per match.
2 goals / match - Arsenal · 1.78 goals / match - Chelsea
Arsenal is 53% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.75 goals / match - Arsenal · 1.15 goals / match - Chelsea
Arsenal scores in 89% of matches (25 of 28 matches), while Chelsea keeps a clean sheet in 33% (9 of 27 matches).
Chelsea scores in 93% of matches (25 of 27 matches), while Arsenal keeps a clean sheet in 46% (13 of 28 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Arsenal
Over / Under - Chelsea
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Arsenal - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 46% of matches and wins 64%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Chelsea - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 48% of matches and wins 44%. Usually protects the lead until full-time.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 2.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 100% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 20% | 0% |
| Goal difference | +4 | +6 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 2.2 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 60% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 20% |
| No goal | 20% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +4 | +1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (14 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): +5 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (12 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Arsenal
Chelsea
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Arsenal | Liga | Chelsea | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.75 | 2.79 | ▲ 2.93 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 50% | 56% | ▲ 67% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | • 54% | 54% | ▲ 63% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 46% | 25% | ▲ 33% |
| Goal before half-time | • 71% | 72% | ▲ 78% |
| Goal after half-time | • 79% | 80% | • 81% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Arsenal 0 - 1 - 0 Chelsea. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Arsenal vs Chelsea?
The Premier League match finished Arsenal 2:1 Chelsea. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Arsenal vs Chelsea?
Arsenal score 2.00 goals per game on average and Chelsea 1.78. The Premier League average is 2.79 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 54% of games. Both teams score in 50% of Arsenal's matches and 67% of Chelsea's.
What form are Arsenal and Chelsea in?
Over the last 5 games Arsenal have a 3-2-0 record (2.20 points per game) and Chelsea 3-2-0 (2.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Arsenal vs Chelsea?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Arsenal vs Chelsea: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.