Astana vs Yelimay Semey: match statistics

Astana are exceptionally strong at home: they have won 91% of their home matches, remain unbeaten there, and score an average of 2.36 goals per game. The hosts also create significantly better chances, posting an average xG of 2.12 compared with Yelimay Semey’s 1.60 away from home, while their advantage in shots on target stands at 7.82 to 5.09 per match. Astana’s home defence concedes just 0.73 goals per game, whereas the visitors allow their opponents an average of 1.27 goals away from home. The difference is also reflected in their current form: Astana have collected 13 points from their last five matches and scored 12 goals, while Yelimay have won just once, drawing three times and scoring 6 goals. The visitors frequently share the points away from home, with as many as 45% of such matches ending in a draw, but Astana’s attacking potential and home consistency clearly point to a home win.

Both teams have recorded BTTS in 64% of their matches this season, well above the league average of 55%. Astana have averaged 2.4 goals in their last five matches, while Yelimay have averaged 1.2, with their xG figures standing at 2.05 and 1.84 respectively—indicating genuine attacking potential on both sides. The home side have kept a clean sheet in only 18% of matches, compared with 27% for the visitors, meaning neither defence offers particularly strong protection against conceding. The short-term trend also supports goals for both teams: BTTS landed in 80% of Astana's last five matches and in 60% of Yelimay's games. The BTTS - Yes scenario is therefore more likely, although the visitors' scoring form of 1.2 goals per match leaves a moderate risk that they will fail to convert their chances.

Astana have averaged 2.4 goals in their last 5 matches and recorded an xG of 2.05, which significantly increases the hosts’ goal-scoring potential. Yelimay are averaging 1.55 goals this season, with an xG of 1.60, while Astana allow opponents an xG of 1.26. Both teams scored at least one goal in 82% of their matches, while Astana and Yelimay conceded in 82% and 73% of games, respectively. The 1.5 line was covered in 82% of Astana’s matches and 64% of Yelimay’s, making Over 1.5 a stronger option than the riskier Over 2.5. The projected total of 2.89 goals points to an open game with a high probability of at least two goals, although it does not provide equally strong confirmation of three or more goals.

The strongest signal points to Astana taking the lead by half-time: in their last five matches, the hosts were ahead at the break in 80% of games, scoring an average of 1.4 goals, while Yelimay found the net only 0.2 times during that period. Astana did not lose any of those five matches and won four, whereas Yelimay recorded just one victory and three draws. Across the season as a whole, Astana have also performed better in the first halves, averaging 0.55 goals scored and 0.55 conceded, while the visitors average 0.36 scored and 0.73 conceded. The hosts create more high-quality chances, with an xG of 1.75 compared with the opponents’ 1.60, and average 5.64 shots on target per match against Yelimay’s 5.09. The visitors are more dangerous after the break, when they average 1.18 goals, so turnaround scenarios remain plausible; however, Astana’s current form primarily points to them preserving their early lead through to full-time.