Aston Villa vs Chelsea: match statistics
Chelsea presents better offensive form with 49 goals in the season and an average of 1.86 goals per away match, while Aston Villa has scored only 38 goals with an average of 1.43 goals in home matches. The form of the last five meetings clearly favors the visitors – Chelsea gained 1.6 points per match with a 2-2-1 record, whereas the hosts earned only 1.0 point with just one victory. Aston Villa is in a crisis, evidenced by a series of two draws and two defeats in their last four home matches. Chelsea has higher shot accuracy (15% vs 10%) and finishes matches without scoring a goal less frequently (7% vs 29%). Possession also speaks in favor of the visitors (57% vs 55%), and their standing in xG (1.47 vs 1.61 for the hosts) suggests balanced quality of created chances, but better finishing efficiency on Chelsea's side. Considering all these factors, a victory for the visitors seems the most likely scenario.
Aston Villa vs Chelsea: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Aston Villa played Chelsea in Premier League (England). The match was played on 4 March 2026. Final score: 1:4.
Current form
Aston Villa: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match. Chelsea: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Aston Villa scores 1.36 and concedes 1.07 goals per match. Chelsea scores 1.75 and concedes 1.18. League average: 2.77 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Aston Villa 50%, Chelsea 68%. Over 2.5: Aston Villa 46%, Chelsea 64%. League level: BTTS 56%, Over 2.5 54%.
xG, shots and style
Chelsea has higher xG: 1.58 vs 1.48. Aston Villa: 12.7 shots per match, Chelsea: 13.5.
Match halves
Aston Villa: half-time lead 25%, second-half goals 0.86. Chelsea: half-time lead 46%, second-half goals 0.96.
Goals by minute
Aston Villa: 76-90+ (11 goals). Chelsea: 46-60 (12 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Premier League: 2.77 goals per match, BTTS 56%, Over 2.5 54%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-0. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Chelsea presents better offensive form with 49 goals in the season and an average of 1.86 goals per away match, while Aston Villa has scored only 38 goals with an average of 1.43 goals in home matches. The form of the last five meetings clearly favors the visitors – Chelsea gained 1.6 points per match with a 2-2-1 record, whereas the hosts earned only 1.0 point with just one victory. Aston Villa is in a crisis, evidenced by a series of two draws and two defeats in their last four home matches. Chelsea has higher shot accuracy (15% vs 10%) and finishes matches without scoring a goal less frequently (7% vs 29%). Possession also speaks in favor of the visitors (57% vs 55%), and their standing in xG (1.47 vs 1.61 for the hosts) suggests balanced quality of created chances, but better finishing efficiency on Chelsea's side. Considering all these factors, a victory for the visitors seems the most likely scenario.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Aston Villa | Chelsea | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 34% | 34% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.31 | 0.38 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Chelsea is 60% better for: last-5 form.
1 pts / match - Aston Villa · 1.6 pts / match - Chelsea
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Chelsea is 29% better for: goals scored per match.
1.36 goals / match - Aston Villa · 1.75 goals / match - Chelsea
Aston Villa is 10% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.07 goals / match - Aston Villa · 1.18 goals / match - Chelsea
Aston Villa scores in 68% of matches (19 of 28 matches), while Chelsea keeps a clean sheet in 32% (9 of 28 matches).
Chelsea scores in 93% of matches (26 of 28 matches), while Aston Villa keeps a clean sheet in 29% (8 of 28 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Aston Villa
Over / Under - Chelsea
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Chelsea is 41% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.21 pts / match - Aston Villa · 1.71 pts / match - Chelsea
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Aston Villa - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 25% of matches and wins 54%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Chelsea - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 46% of matches and wins 43%. Usually protects the lead until full-time.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 80% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -1 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 20% |
| No goal | 20% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +3 | -1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (11 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +6 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (12 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Aston Villa
Chelsea
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Aston Villa | Liga | Chelsea | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.43 | 2.77 | ▲ 2.93 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 50% | 56% | ▲ 68% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 46% | 54% | ▲ 64% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 29% | 25% | ▲ 32% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 68% | 71% | ▲ 79% |
| Goal after half-time | • 79% | 80% | ▲ 82% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Aston Villa 1 - 0 - 0 Chelsea. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Aston Villa vs Chelsea?
The Premier League match finished Aston Villa 1:4 Chelsea. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Aston Villa vs Chelsea?
Aston Villa score 1.36 goals per game on average and Chelsea 1.75. The Premier League average is 2.77 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 54% of games. Both teams score in 50% of Aston Villa's matches and 68% of Chelsea's.
What form are Aston Villa and Chelsea in?
Over the last 5 games Aston Villa have a 1-2-2 record (1.00 points per game) and Chelsea 2-2-1 (1.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Aston Villa vs Chelsea?
The statistical background for Aston Villa vs Chelsea — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.