Atlanta vs Agropecuario: match statistics

Atlanta have a clear home advantage: they win 60% of their home matches, scoring an average of 1.33 goals and conceding just 0.67. Agropecuario have won only 7% of their away fixtures, averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per match. The hosts create higher-quality chances, as reflected by an xG of 1.49 compared with the visitors’ 1.13, while limiting opponents to just 1.04 xG. Atlanta keep a clean sheet in 53% of their home matches, whereas Agropecuario fail to score in as many as 53% of their away fixtures. Both teams have collected 7 points from their last five matches, but the clear contrast between their home and away performances strongly favors an Atlanta victory.

A scenario in which at least one team fails to score is clearly more likely, as Atlanta keeps a clean sheet in 60% of matches, while Agropecuario averages just 0.60 goals away from home. BTTS has occurred in only 27% of Atlanta’s matches and 47% of Agropecuario’s matches this season, compared with a league average of 39%. Recent form further supports the BTTS - No pick: in their five previous matches, Atlanta recorded BTTS in 0% of games, while Agropecuario did so in just 20%, scoring 0.6 and 0.8 goals per match respectively. Atlanta has conceded an average of 0.6 goals recently and allows opponents an xG of 0.96, while Agropecuario’s shot conversion rate is only 6%. The hosts have better conditions to find the net, creating an average xG of 1.51 compared with the 1.60 xG conceded by the visitors, but the away side’s weak attack significantly increases the risk of a scoreline with one team failing to score.

The match profile clearly points to a low-scoring game: Atlanta concede an average of just 0.60 goals at home, while Agropecuario score only 0.60 goals away from home. In their last five matches, the hosts have scored and conceded 3 goals, averaging 0.60 per game in both cases, while none of Atlanta’s matches went over the 2.5-goal line. On a season-long basis, the 3.5-goal line has not been exceeded in any of Atlanta’s matches and in 87% of Agropecuario’s games. The hosts keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches, while the visitors have failed to score in 53% of their appearances, limiting the chances of an open game. Although Atlanta should have the edge based on an xG of 1.51 compared with the opponents’ 1.13, the projected total of 1.80 goals provides the strongest support for Under 3.5.

A draw at half-time is the most likely outcome, as Agropecuario were level after 45 minutes in 60% of their matches this season and in as many as 80% of their last five games, while Atlanta had a level score at the break in 47% of their matches. The first halves should be particularly cautious: the hosts average just 0.33 goals scored before the break, compared with 0.07 for the visitors, while both teams kept a clean sheet in the first half in 67% and 60% of matches, respectively. After the break, Atlanta’s advantage increases significantly, as they win the second half in 60% of matches and concede just 0.20 goals per game during that period. Agropecuario concede an average of 1.13 goals after half-time, lost 53% of second halves, and have recorded only 7% wins across the season compared with Atlanta’s 53%. In addition, the hosts create more chances, as reflected by their xG of 1.51 versus 1.13 for the visitors, as well as an average of 4.73 shots on target compared with 2.60. Therefore, the X/1 scenario has the strongest foundations.