Atlético Mineiro vs Grêmio: match statistics
Atlético Mineiro vs Grêmio: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Atlético Mineiro played Grêmio in Serie A (Brazil). The match was played on 16 August 2026. Venue: Arena MRV. Final score: 3:0.
Current form
Atlético Mineiro: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match. Grêmio: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Atlético Mineiro scores 1.29 and concedes 1.29 goals per match. Grêmio scores 1.14 and concedes 1.29. League average: 2.59 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Atlético Mineiro 48%, Grêmio 62%. Over 2.5: Atlético Mineiro 48%, Grêmio 43%. League level: BTTS 58%, Over 2.5 48%.
xG, shots and style
Atlético Mineiro has higher xG: 1.41 vs 1.25. Atlético Mineiro: 13.2 shots per match, Grêmio: 11.3.
Match halves
Atlético Mineiro: half-time lead 38%, second-half goals 0.57. Grêmio: half-time lead 14%, second-half goals 0.76.
Goals by minute
Atlético Mineiro: 31-45+ (7 goals). Grêmio: 46-60 (8 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Serie A: 2.59 goals per match, BTTS 58%, Over 2.5 48%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 3 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-3. Average goals 3.33, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Atlético Mineiro have a clear home advantage: they win 44% of their home matches, while Grêmio have failed to win any away game and have lost 60% of them. At home, Atlético average 1.56 goals per match with an xG of 1.55, whereas Grêmio score just 0.60 goals away from home with an xG of 0.93 and fail to find the net in as many as 40% of such matches. The difference in attacking potential is also reflected in Atlético’s average of 14.67 shots and 4.89 shots on target, compared with just 8.2 attempts and 2.3 shots on target for Grêmio. Both teams have conceded 4 goals in their last five matches, but Atlético remain unbeaten during this period, recording 2 wins and 3 draws. A draw is a realistic alternative given Atlético’s 44% home draw rate, but Grêmio’s poor away efficiency ultimately points to an Atlético Mineiro victory.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Seasonal BTTS indicators are elevated for both sides: Atlético Mineiro record 64%, while Grêmio stand at 60%, compared with 56% for the league as a whole. Atlético average 1.64 goals and create 1.55 xG at home, whereas Grêmio score just 0.60 goals away from home despite 0.93 xG, which clearly limits confidence in an away goal. However, the last five matches involving both teams produced BTTS in 60% of cases, while Grêmio generated as much as 1.66 xG per match during this period. Atlético’s defence has recently allowed opponents 1.63 xG, despite conceding only 0.8 goals on average, so their run of low goals conceded may be difficult to sustain. The signal for both teams to score is moderately stronger, although Grêmio’s poor away finishing means the edge for “BTTS - Yes” remains slight.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Atlético Mineiro score an average of 1.64 goals at home, while Grêmio manage only 0.60 goals away, limiting the potential for a high-scoring game. The visitors have not exceeded the 3.5-goal line in any league match, and fixtures involving Atlético have finished under 3.5 goals in 73% of cases. Both teams have conceded 0.8 goals per game across their last five matches, while only 20% of Grêmio’s recent games went over 2.5 goals. Although the hosts create more chances, with an xG of 1.55 and an average of 5.0 shots on target compared with the opponents’ 0.93 xG and 2.3 shots on target, the projected total of 2.15 goals clearly supports Under 3.5.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by an Atlético Mineiro win at full-time, as the hosts were level at the break in 55% of their matches, compared with 60% for Grêmio. First halves are generally cautious: Atlético average 0.55 goals scored and 0.45 conceded during this period, while Grêmio score just 0.20 goals away from home. After the break, the hosts’ advantage should increase, as they average 1.09 goals in the second half, compared with just 0.40 for the visitors. Atlético also have a significantly stronger home record: 1.91 points per match, a 55% win rate and an average of 1.64 goals scored, whereas Grêmio have not won away, average 0.60 goals and lose 60% of their away matches. The hosts’ superior attacking quality is also reflected in their averages of 5.0 shots on target and an xG of 1.55, compared with 2.3 shots on target and an xG of 0.93 for the visitors.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Atlético Mineiro | Grêmio | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 32% | 33% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Atlético Mineiro is 14% better for: last-5 form.
1.6 pts / match - Atlético Mineiro · 1.4 pts / match - Grêmio
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Atlético Mineiro is 13% better for: goals scored per match.
1.29 goals / match - Atlético Mineiro · 1.14 goals / match - Grêmio
Atlético Mineiro scores in 67% of matches (14 of 21 matches), while Grêmio keeps a clean sheet in 24% (5 of 21 matches).
Grêmio scores in 71% of matches (15 of 21 matches), while Atlético Mineiro keeps a clean sheet in 19% (4 of 21 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Atlético Mineiro
Over / Under - Grêmio
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Atlético Mineiro is 52% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.52 pts / match - Atlético Mineiro · 1 pts / match - Grêmio
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Atlético Mineiro - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 38% of matches and wins 38%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Grêmio - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 14% of matches and wins 29%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 20% |
| No goal | 40% | 80% |
| Goal difference | +3 | -2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -3 | +2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (7 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (8 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Atlético Mineiro
Grêmio
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Serie A).
Teams vs league
| Atlético Mineiro | Liga | Grêmio | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.57 | 2.59 | ▼ 2.43 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 48% | 58% | ▲ 62% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | • 48% | 48% | ▼ 43% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 19% | 24% | • 24% |
| Goal before half-time | • 76% | 75% | ▼ 57% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 81% | 77% | ▼ 71% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (3): Atlético Mineiro 0 - 0 - 3 Grêmio. Average goals 3.33, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Atlético Mineiro vs Grêmio?
The Serie A match finished Atlético Mineiro 3:0 Grêmio. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Atlético Mineiro and Grêmio?
In the last 3 head-to-head matches Atlético Mineiro won 0, Grêmio won 3 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 3.33 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Atlético Mineiro vs Grêmio?
Atlético Mineiro score 1.29 goals per game on average and Grêmio 1.14. The Serie A average is 2.59 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 48% of games. Both teams score in 48% of Atlético Mineiro's matches and 62% of Grêmio's.
What form are Atlético Mineiro and Grêmio in?
Over the last 5 games Atlético Mineiro have a 2-2-1 record (1.60 points per game) and Grêmio 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Atlético Mineiro vs Grêmio?
The statistical background for Atlético Mineiro vs Grêmio — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.