Atlético Nacional vs Deportes Tolima: match statistics

Atlético Nacional are clear favourites: they have won 88% of their home matches and have not lost any, while Deportes Tolima have won 25% of their away games. The hosts average 2.56 goals from 19.63 shots per match at home, while the visitors score 1.06 goals from 11.13 shots per match away. Atlético’s superiority is also reflected in the quality of the chances they create: their average home xG is 2.01, compared with Tolima’s away xG of 1.20. The hosts’ defence concede just 0.50 goals per home match on average, while Tolima have failed to score in 38% of their away games. Recent form also favours Atlético, who have won 3 of their last 5 matches, while Tolima have failed to win any of their last five.

The strongest signal points to Deportes Tolima potentially failing to score: the visitors have been held scoreless in 38% of their matches, while Atlético Nacional have kept a clean sheet in 37%. Across the season, Tolima average 1.06 goals per match, while the hosts concede just 0.79. In their last 5 matches, the visitors scored only 3 goals, an average of 0.6 per match, although their xG of 1.75 indicates they have been creating chances. The hosts have greater attacking potential, averaging 1.53 goals compared with Tolima’s 1.06, making a match in which the visitors fail to score more likely. However, the season-long BTTS rates in matches involving these teams, at 53% and 50%, limit the edge on BTTS - No.

The strongest signal points to Under 3.5 goals: this line was not surpassed in 79% of Atlético Nacional’s matches and 75% of Deportes Tolima’s games. The hosts concede an average of 0.79 goals, while the visitors score 1.06; Tolima have netted just 3 goals in their last five matches, or 0.6 per game. Atlético create more chances, posting an xG of 1.75 compared with their opponents’ 1.20, yet only 21% of their matches this season have featured at least four goals. An estimated 2.27 goals per match and the hosts’ defensive advantage support the Under 3.5 goals pick, while still allowing for a two- or three-goal outcome.

A draw at half-time is the most likely outcome: Atlético Nacional were level at the break in 53% of their matches, and both teams were tied at half-time in 3 of their last 5 meetings. The hosts’ advantage is more pronounced after the break, when they average 0.95 goals compared with Deportes Tolima’s 0.38. Tolima also concede an average of 0.69 goals after half-time and have conceded 6 goals between minutes 46 and 60, while Atlético have scored 10 in that period. The hosts’ higher xG, 1.75 versus 1.20, and their 3 wins in the last 5 matches compared with no wins for the visitors also support a home win at full-time. Therefore, a draw at half-time followed by an Atlético Nacional win is the HT/FT scenario best supported by the data.