Atlético Nacional vs La Equidad: match statistics
Atlético Nacional vs La Equidad: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Atlético Nacional played La Equidad in Categoria Primera A (Colombia). The match was played on 12 May 2026. Final score: 7:1.
Current form
Atlético Nacional: 3-0-2, 1.80 points/match. La Equidad: 2-0-3, 1.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
Atlético Nacional scores 1.85 and concedes 0.80 goals per match. La Equidad scores 1.35 and concedes 1.40. League average: 2.51 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Atlético Nacional 40%, La Equidad 65%. Over 2.5: Atlético Nacional 65%, La Equidad 65%. League level: BTTS 54%, Over 2.5 47%.
xG, shots and style
Atlético Nacional has higher xG: 1.68 vs 1.37. Atlético Nacional: 16.1 shots per match, La Equidad: 13.1.
Match halves
Atlético Nacional: half-time lead 30%, second-half goals 1.20. La Equidad: half-time lead 15%, second-half goals 0.75.
Goals by minute
Atlético Nacional: 76-90+ (9 goals). La Equidad: 46-60 (7 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Categoria Primera A: 2.51 goals per match, BTTS 54%, Over 2.5 47%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 4 previous H2H matches were available: 4-0-0. Average goals 2.75, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Atlético Nacional is the clear favorite: at home they win 89% of matches, score an average of 2.44 goals per game and concede only 0.33, with a home goal difference of +19. Their home xG is 1.98 versus opponent xG 1.04, and they average 19.22 shots and 7.33 on target with 57% possession, indicating high-quality chances and game control. La Equidad away wins only 20% of fixtures, scores 1.0 goal and concedes 1.7 per away game, averages 11.7 shots and 3.8 on target, only 40% possession and 10% clean sheets. The visitors also have higher opponent xG (1.46 vs 1.04) and 30% of away matches without scoring, while the hosts keep a clean sheet in 67% of home games, giving Atlético a clear defensive and offensive edge. Considering the gap in efficiency, chance quality and form (1.8 pts/match in the last 5 for Atlético vs 1.2 for La Equidad), I back a home win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
The 'Both Teams To Score' scenario is more likely: season BTTS rate is 60% for Atlético Nacional and 70% for La Equidad, against a league average of 54%. La Equidad concedes an average of 1.7 goals per season (1.6 in the last 5), while Atlético scores 1.7 goals per season (1.4 in the last 5) and has xG 1.51 versus opponents' xG 1.46, indicating genuine scoring opportunities. The visitors have an 80% BTTS rate in the last 5 matches (home side 40%), and season totals show Atlético scored 37 and conceded 16, whereas La Equidad scored 27 and conceded 28, so the visitors are more prone to conceding. Additionally, clean sheet rate is 30% for Atlético and only 10% for La Equidad, and shot-on-target numbers and conversion (avg 5.4 SoT and 12% conversion for the home side vs avg 3.8 SoT and 9% for the visitors) favor goal exchange; therefore I assign a 70% probability to BTTS - Yes and 30% to No Goal.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Atlético Nacional scores an average of 1.7 goals at home with an xG of 1.51, while La Equidad concedes an average of 1.7 goals with an xG against of 1.46; averaging these values yields expected goals of 1.49 for Nacional and 1.26 for La Equidad, totaling 2.75 goals. Both teams frequently find the net: hosts in 60% of matches, visitors in 70%, and Over 1.5 occurred in 70% of Nacional’s games and 90% of La Equidad’s games, which is a strong signal for at least 2 goals. In the last 5 matches La Equidad has scored an average of 1.8 goals (9 goals) and Nacional 1.4 goals (7 goals), and the recent xG is 1.62 for Nacional and 1.34 for La Equidad, which sustains the scoring pace. Given the projected 2.75 xG and the high Over 1.5 percentages, I recommend playing over at the 1.5 line as the best and safest option. Over 2.5 also makes sense (estimated 66%), but is less certain than over 1.5.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The most likely scenario is a Half-Time draw with a home win at Full-Time (X/1), because Atlético Nacional were level at the break in 70% of their matches while La Equidad were level in 50%. Both teams average 0.6 goals by Half-Time (home 0.6, away 0.6), which confirms first halves often finish undecided. In the Second Half the home side has a clear advantage: on average 1.7 goals in the second period versus 1.5 for the visitors, a positive second-half goal differential of +5 compared to -7, and they win second halves in around 60% of cases versus 0% for La Equidad. Offensively Atlético posts superior numbers: xG 1.51 versus 1.23, 5.4 shots on target per match versus 3.8, and a conversion rate of 12% versus 9%, which increases the likelihood of scoring the decisive goal after the break. On this basis I assign the X/1 scenario the highest probability at 42%, with lower chances for X/X (17%) and X/2 (10%), since the combination of a 70% HT draw rate and a strong home second-half performance most often leads to an Atlético Nacional turnaround to win after the break.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Atlético Nacional | La Equidad | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 37% | 35% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Atlético Nacional is 50% better for: last-5 form.
1.8 pts / match - Atlético Nacional · 1.2 pts / match - La Equidad
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Atlético Nacional is 37% better for: goals scored per match.
1.85 goals / match - Atlético Nacional · 1.35 goals / match - La Equidad
Atlético Nacional is 75% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.8 goals / match - Atlético Nacional · 1.4 goals / match - La Equidad
Atlético Nacional scores in 70% of matches (14 of 20 matches), while La Equidad keeps a clean sheet in 20% (4 of 20 matches).
La Equidad scores in 70% of matches (14 of 20 matches), while Atlético Nacional keeps a clean sheet in 35% (7 of 20 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Atlético Nacional
Over / Under - La Equidad
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Atlético Nacional is 33% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.4 pts / match - Atlético Nacional · 1.05 pts / match - La Equidad
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Atlético Nacional - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 30% of matches and wins 70%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
La Equidad - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 15% of matches and wins 35%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 80% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +1 | 0 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (9 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +8 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (7 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Atlético Nacional
La Equidad
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Categoria Primera A).
Teams vs league
| Atlético Nacional | Liga | La Equidad | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.65 | 2.51 | ▲ 2.75 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 40% | 54% | ▲ 65% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 65% | 47% | ▲ 65% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 35% | 27% | ▼ 20% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 75% | 71% | ▼ 65% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 90% | 78% | ▼ 75% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (4): Atlético Nacional 4 - 0 - 0 La Equidad. Average goals 2.75, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Atlético Nacional vs La Equidad?
The Categoria Primera A match finished Atlético Nacional 7:1 La Equidad. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Atlético Nacional and La Equidad?
In the last 4 head-to-head matches Atlético Nacional won 4, La Equidad won 0 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 2.75 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Atlético Nacional vs La Equidad?
Atlético Nacional score 1.85 goals per game on average and La Equidad 1.35. The Categoria Primera A average is 2.51 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 47% of games. Both teams score in 40% of Atlético Nacional's matches and 65% of La Equidad's.
What form are Atlético Nacional and La Equidad in?
Over the last 5 games Atlético Nacional have a 3-0-2 record (1.80 points per game) and La Equidad 2-0-3 (1.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Atlético Nacional vs La Equidad?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Atlético Nacional vs La Equidad: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.