Atlético Ottawa vs Forge FC: match statistics
Atlético Ottawa vs Forge FC: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Atlético Ottawa played Forge FC in Canadian Premier League (Canada). The match was played on 24 May 2026. Final score: 2:1.
Current form
Atlético Ottawa: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match. Forge FC: 4-1-0, 2.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Atlético Ottawa scores 0.83 and concedes 1.67 goals per match. Forge FC scores 1.33 and concedes 0.17. League average: 2.28 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Atlético Ottawa 50%, Forge FC 17%. Over 2.5: Atlético Ottawa 33%, Forge FC 17%. League level: BTTS 52%, Over 2.5 36%.
xG, shots and style
Forge FC has higher xG: 1.51 vs 0.96. Atlético Ottawa: 7.5 shots per match, Forge FC: 13.2.
Match halves
Atlético Ottawa: half-time lead 17%, second-half goals 0.67. Forge FC: half-time lead 33%, second-half goals 1.00.
Goals by minute
Atlético Ottawa: 76-90+ (4 goals). Forge FC: 16-30 (2 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Canadian Premier League: 2.28 goals per match, BTTS 52%, Over 2.5 36%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 6 previous H2H matches were available: 1-3-2. Average goals 2.50, BTTS 67%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Forge FC are the favorites in this match: they have a record of 5 wins, 1 draw and 0 losses this season, scored 8 goals and conceded only 1, averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.33 conceded on the road. Atlético Ottawa average 1.00 goal per home match and concede 0.5, have high possession at 65% and 3 shots on target per game, but lower conversion (10% vs 13% for Forge) and lower xG (1.23 vs 1.54). In the last 5 matches the visitors recorded 4 wins and 1 draw (average 2.6 points), while the hosts have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss (average 2.0 points), indicating greater consistency for Forge. Considering the clear advantage in shot volume (12.67 vs 10), efficiency and lower average goals conceded, I assess the chances as: away win 60%, draw 20%, home win 20%.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I back 'No' (BTTS - No) because Forge FC's defense has been notably solid recently and outweighs the hosts' attack. In the last 5 matches Forge conceded just 0.2 goals per game on average and has a 67% clean sheet rate this season, while Atlético Ottawa averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded in their last 5. xG comparison shows Atlético generating xG 1.05 over the last 5, with Forge allowing xG 0.8, whereas Forge creates xG 1.73 versus an Ottawa defense conceding 1.69 xG, which indicates a higher real scoring potential from Forge; additionally Ottawa's conversion is 7% versus Forge's 13%. Considering recent BTTS rates (Ottawa 60% vs Forge 20%) and the league BTTS average of 48%, the balance of evidence favors No Goal — I assess BTTS 'No' at 62% versus 38% for 'Yes'.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The xG-based model projects 1.37 goals for Atlético Ottawa (attacking xG 1.49 vs xG conceded to Forge 1.25 → average 1.37) and 1.05 for Forge FC (attacking xG 1.54 vs xG conceded to Ottawa 0.56 → 1.05), totaling 2.42 goals. Using a Poisson distribution with λ=2.42, the probability of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5) is about 70%, while at least 3 goals (Over 2.5) is ~44%, and at least 4 goals (Over 3.5) is ~22%. In the last 5 matches Atlético scored 7 goals (1.4 per match) and conceded 6 (1.2), while Forge scored 9 goals (1.8) and conceded 1 (0.2), which favors more scoring from Forge and raises the total. Given the 2.42-goal forecast and the 70% edge for Over 1.5, I recommend backing Over 1.5 as the strongest and most justified signal; Over 2.5 (44%) and Over 3.5 (22%) are less convincing.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
A draw at half-time is most likely: both teams were level at the break in 2 of their 3 matches (67%) and both kept clean sheets at half-time in all matches (100%), indicating a low number of first-half goals. After the break the advantage lies with the visitors: Forge FC have a 100% win rate this season and 80% in their last 5 matches, while Atlético Ottawa have 67% season wins and 60% in their last 5, so the visitors decide matches more often. Average post-break goals support this picture — visitors score an average of 1.33 goals after half-time versus 0.67 for the hosts, and the visitors’ xG after the break is 1.54 against 1.49 for the hosts, suggesting the decisive goal is likely to come after the interval. The hosts, however, concede fewer expected chances (xG against hosts 0.56 vs 1.25 against visitors), so I project a tight first half (e.g. 0:0) and a turnaround in favor of the visitors after the break; therefore HT/FT X/2 receives the highest probability (47%), with lower probabilities for X/X (12%) and 1/1 (10%).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Atlético Ottawa | Forge FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 36% | 29% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Forge FC is 86% better for: last-5 form.
1.4 pts / match - Atlético Ottawa · 2.6 pts / match - Forge FC
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Forge FC is 60% better for: goals scored per match.
0.83 goals / match - Atlético Ottawa · 1.33 goals / match - Forge FC
Forge FC is 882% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.67 goals / match - Atlético Ottawa · 0.17 goals / match - Forge FC
Atlético Ottawa scores in 83% of matches (5 of 6 matches), while Forge FC keeps a clean sheet in 83% (5 of 6 matches).
Forge FC scores in 83% of matches (5 of 6 matches), while Atlético Ottawa keeps a clean sheet in 33% (2 of 6 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Atlético Ottawa
Over / Under - Forge FC
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Forge FC is 67% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1 pts / match - Atlético Ottawa · 1.67 pts / match - Forge FC
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Atlético Ottawa - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 17% of matches and wins 33%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.7 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Forge FC - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 33% of matches and wins 83%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 40% |
| No goal | 80% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -1 | -2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.0 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 0.2 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 20% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 80% |
| No goal | 80% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +4 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (4 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +4 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (2 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (1). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Atlético Ottawa
Forge FC
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Canadian Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Atlético Ottawa | Liga | Forge FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.50 | 2.28 | ▼ 1.50 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 50% | 52% | ▼ 17% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 33% | 36% | ▼ 17% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 33% | 26% | ▲ 83% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 50% | 52% | ▼ 33% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 83% | 80% | ▲ 83% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (6): Atlético Ottawa 1 - 3 - 2 Forge FC. Average goals 2.50, both teams scored in 67% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Atlético Ottawa vs Forge FC?
The Canadian Premier League match finished Atlético Ottawa 2:1 Forge FC. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Atlético Ottawa and Forge FC?
In the last 6 head-to-head matches Atlético Ottawa won 1, Forge FC won 2 and 3 ended level. These games averaged 2.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 67% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Atlético Ottawa vs Forge FC?
Atlético Ottawa score 0.83 goals per game on average and Forge FC 1.33. The Canadian Premier League average is 2.28 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 36% of games. Both teams score in 50% of Atlético Ottawa's matches and 17% of Forge FC's.
What form are Atlético Ottawa and Forge FC in?
Over the last 5 games Atlético Ottawa have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and Forge FC 4-1-0 (2.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Atlético Ottawa vs Forge FC?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Atlético Ottawa vs Forge FC: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.