Auda vs Liepāja: match statistics

Auda is the match favorite: at home they average 2.33 goals per game (26 goals this season, 12 in the last 5), while Liepāja score only 0.83 goals per away game (16 goals this season, 7 in the last 5). The hosts register an average of 5 shots on target per game and a conversion rate of 18% at home, whereas the visitors have 3.67 shots on target and a 6% conversion rate away, indicating a significant efficiency edge. xG is similar (1.67 xG for Auda at home vs 1.56 xG for Liepāja away), but Auda fail to score in only 17% of home matches versus 50% of Liepāja’s away matches, which further favors the hosts. In the last 5 matches Auda have scored 12 goals and recorded 3 wins with an average of 1.8 points per game, while Liepāja have 7 goals and 1.4 points per game and a negative away goal difference of -6, therefore I predict an Auda victory.

The primary case for BTTS - Yes is Auda’s very high seasonal rate of matches with both teams scoring: 86%, combined with zero clean sheets (0%) and an average of 1.14 goals conceded per match, meaning the hosts almost always concede at least one goal. Liepāja has a seasonal BTTS of only 33% and a low goals scored average of 0.83, but its xG_for_avg is 1.56 and over the last 5 matches it averaged 1.4 goals, i.e. it creates chances despite poor finishing (conversion rate 6%). Auda scores 1.57 goals seasonally and has a high conversion of 16%, and in the last 5 matches scored 12 goals (2.4 avg) and conceded 9 (1.8 avg), which increases the likelihood of both teams scoring. Additionally, the league’s BTTS is 60% with an average goals per match of 3.07, and in H2H xG terms against Auda’s defense (xG_against 1.26) Liepāja generates xG 1.56, suggesting realistic chances for an away goal. Considering the strong signal from Auda (86% BTTS, 0% clean sheets) and Liepāja’s offensive numbers in xG and the last 5 matches, I assess the probability of BTTS at 70% for Yes and 30% for No.

xG and goals-per-game analysis points to a high-goals potential: Auda’s xG is 1.32 and xG against Liepāja is 1.47, yielding expected home goals of ~1.40; Liepāja’s xG is 1.56 and xG against Auda 1.26, yielding expected away goals of ~1.41, total 2.81. This aligns with form and seasonal stats: Auda averages 1.57 goals per home game, Liepāja 0.83, and in the last 5 matches Auda averaged 2.4 goals, Liepāja 1.4 (combined 3.8). Line statistics show Over 1.5 goals occurs frequently — 86% of Auda’s home matches and 67% of Liepāja’s matches; Over 2.5 is moderately likely (57% for hosts, 50% for guests, league average 55%). Given the projected 2.81 goals, Auda’s high rate of both teams scoring (86% at home) and Auda’s superior finishing (conversion rate 16% vs 6% for Liepāja), I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest signal; Over 2.5 also has an edge but is less certain.

Auda led at half-time in 4 of 7 matches this season (57%) and averages 0.57 goals by the break versus 0.33 for Liepāja, with no draws at half-time (0%). In the second half Auda averages 1.00 goal scored and 0.71 conceded, while Liepāja scores 0.50 and concedes 1.00 after the break, giving Auda a better post-break balance and a greater chance to hold or extend a lead. Despite higher xG for the visitors (1.56 vs 1.32), Auda converts chances far more efficiently (conversion rate 16% vs 6%) and registers more shots on target (4.43 vs 3.67), supporting a higher home win percentage (43% vs 33%). Additionally, 86% of Auda’s home matches have featured both teams scoring, so the most likely scenario is Auda leading at the break and the home side winning at full-time (HT/FT 1/1).