Auda vs Riga: match statistics

Riga is the favorite, having scored 60 goals this season versus Auda’s 36, and averaging 3.1 goals away compared to Auda’s 2.22 goals at home. The visitors also have higher average xG (1.95 vs 1.70) and take more shots (15.9 vs 13.33) and shots on target (6.7 vs 5.22), indicating better quality of created chances. In form, Riga has won 4 of their last 5 matches and averages 2.6 points per match over that period, while Auda are 2-2-1 with 1.6 points per match. Defensively the visitors’ advantage is also visible: Riga concedes 1.00 goal on average away, Auda concede 1.33 at home, and clean sheet percentage is 30% for Riga versus 22% for Auda. Considering higher conversion rate (19% vs 17%), superior xG and form, I predict a Riga win, with a moderate probability of a draw.

Data analysis supports BTTS - Yes. Both teams have high goal outputs: Auda averages 2.9 goals per match and Riga 3.1, with average goals conceded 0.9 and 1.0 respectively. xG values corroborate this — Auda xG 2.04 vs Riga 1.95, and xG against 0.85 and 1.05, indicating both sides consistently create genuine scoring chances. Seasonal BTTS rates differ notably: Riga has 70% BTTS, Auda 50%, league average 56%; additionally, Over 2.5 goals occurs in 80% of Auda's matches and 90% of Riga's. Weakening factors for BTTS are Auda's high clean sheet expected rate (50% clean sheets this season) and a lower 40% BTTS rate in the last 5 matches for both teams, but Riga’s form offsets this with 12 goals in 5 matches (2.4 per match) and only 2 conceded (0.4), while Auda has 6 goals and 3 conceded (1.2 and 0.6). Considering Riga’s 70% BTTS, high xG for both teams and dominant Over 2.5 rates, I recommend BTTS=Yes with an estimated 70% probability versus 30% for No Goal.

Both teams give a clear signal for a high-scoring game: Auda averages 2.9 goals scored per match, Riga 3.1, and season-over-2.5 rates are 80% for Auda and 90% for Riga. Based on xG: Auda’s attack xG is 2.04 versus Riga’s conceded xG 1.05, yielding expected goals for Auda ≈1.55; Riga’s attack xG 1.95 versus Auda’s conceded xG 0.85 yields ≈1.40, totaling ≈2.95 goals. Riga has scored 60 goals versus Auda’s 36, and both teams average 17.3 and 15.9 shots respectively with conversion rates of 17% and 19%, which increases the likelihood of goals. Although Auda have had only 20% of their last 5 matches over 2.5 (versus 60% for Riga), the seasonal rates and projected xG support Over 2.5 as the strongest signal.

Riga is in strong form: in the last 5 matches they have won 4 of 5 (80%) and have held a lead at the break in 4 of 5 (80%), while Auda has led at half-time only once in the last 5 (20%). In the first half over the last 5 games Riga averages 1.6 goals by the break versus Auda’s 0.4, and the average half-time goals are 1.6 for the visitors vs 0.8 for the home side. The visitors register an average of 6.7 shots on target and have a 19% conversion rate compared to Auda’s 5.6 and 17%, which, given comparable xG figures 2.04 (Auda) vs 1.95 (Riga), gives Riga the effectiveness edge. Season-wide Auda has actually led at half-time more often (8 instances, 80%), but the home side’s weaker recent form (40% wins in 5 matches) makes the strongest signal a Riga lead at the break and a Riga full-time victory (2/2).