Auda vs Tukums: match statistics

Auda sit 3rd, while Tukums are only 9th, and the gap is further highlighted by their current form: the hosts have won 4 of their last 5 matches, whereas the visitors have suffered 4 defeats during the same period. At home, Auda score an average of 1.91 goals and create chances worth 1.66 xG, while Tukums concede as many as 2.54 goals per away match, with an xG against of 1.77. The hosts also hold a clear advantage in terms of game control, averaging 61% possession compared with the visitors’ 44%, and registering 4.82 shots on target per match versus Tukums’ 4.15. The visitors’ away record is particularly significant: they have not won a single match on the road, have lost 69% of such games, and have failed to keep a clean sheet even once. Tukums can pose a threat, averaging 1.23 goals away from home, but Auda’s advantage in form, chance quality and the opponent’s defensive weaknesses clearly points to a home win.

Both teams’ seasonal BTTS rates are exceptionally high at 85% each, well above the league average of 56%. Tukums have yet to keep a single clean sheet and concede an average of 2.54 goals per match, strongly supporting an Auda goal, with the hosts scoring an average of 1.85 goals at home. The visitors have been less effective in their last five matches, averaging 0.8 goals, but Auda have also failed to score in only 8% of their games and allow opponents an xG of 1.71. The hosts’ recent form lowers confidence in the pick, as their BTTS rate across the last five matches was only 20%; however, Tukums conceded 1.8 goals per match during this period, with an xG against of 2.13. The most likely outcome therefore remains goals for both sides, primarily due to the visitors’ very weak defence and both teams’ consistent season-long BTTS record.

Auda scores an average of 1.85 goals per match, while Tukums concedes as many as 2.54 goals away from home, significantly increasing the hosts’ attacking potential. Tukums have failed to keep a clean sheet in any match this season, whereas Auda have scored at least one goal in 92% of their games. The Over 1.5 goals line has been surpassed in 92% of Auda’s matches and in every Tukums game, while the league-wide average stands at 2.98 goals. Recent form also supports goals for the hosts: their xG across the last five matches is 1.82, while opponents allowed an xG of 2.13 during this period. The strongest signal is Over 1.5 goals, as even with Tukums’ recent attacking struggles, Auda’s advantage should be enough to produce a match with at least two goals.

Auda are in clearly better current form: they have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring an average of 1.4 goals, while Tukums have lost 4 of their last 5 games, scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.8 goals per match. Across the season, the visitors have not won a single match, losing 69% of their fixtures, and their average of 2.54 goals conceded is significantly worse than Auda’s 1.38. The hosts were leading at the break in 60% of their last five matches, whereas Tukums concede an average of 1.31 goals after half-time and have won the second half in only 15% of their games. The most likely HT/FT outcome is therefore 1/1, as Auda have the qualities to take the lead before the break and maintain their advantage until the final whistle.