Audace Cerignola vs Team Altamura: match statistics

Audace Cerignola are the favourites: they have won 67% of their home matches and remain unbeaten, while Team Altamura are yet to win away and have lost 67% of their away games. The hosts average 2.33 goals and 5 shots on target per home match, while the visitors score just 0.33 goals from 2 shots on target on the road. The hosts’ edge in chance quality is reflected in their average home xG of 1.63, compared with the visitors’ away xG of 0.86; Altamura also allow opponents chances worth an average of 1.65 xG. Cerignola concede just 0.33 goals per home match and have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their games, while Altamura have failed to score in 67% of their away matches. The last five matches also favour the hosts: they have scored 7 goals and conceded 3, while the visitors have scored 2 and conceded 9.

The strongest argument for BTTS - No is Team Altamura’s poor finishing: the visitors average 0.33 goals away from home and have failed to score in 67% of those matches. They have scored just 2 goals in their last 5 games, and their average away xG is 0.86, so it is difficult to expect them to find the net despite the hosts conceding an average of 1.5 goals at home. Audace Cerignola have also been unimpressive in front of goal at home, averaging 0.75 goals and failing to score in 50% of matches, further reducing the chances of both teams scoring. BTTS - Yes has landed in 25% of the hosts’ home matches and 33% of the visitors’ away games, well below the league average of 55%. Even if the hosts exploit their opponents’ weaker defence, which has conceded 9 goals in the last 5 matches, it is more likely that at least one team will fail to score.

The strongest pick is Under 3.5 goals: this line has not been breached in any of the teams’ meetings so far. Team Altamura score an average of just 0.33 goals per match and have netted only 2 goals across their last five games, limiting the likelihood of a high-scoring game. Audace Cerignola have greater attacking potential, with an xG of 1.24 compared with their opponents’ 0.86, while Altamura concede an average of 1.33 goals, so the home side could score one or two. The projected total of 2.12 goals points to Under 3.5, despite the league average of 2.87 goals per match.

The strongest scenario is Audace Cerignola leading at the break and holding onto their advantage through to the final whistle. In their last five matches, the hosts led at half-time in 40% of games and averaged 0.8 goals in the first half, while Team Altamura were trailing at the break in 60% of matches and failed to score before half-time in any of them. The hosts also hold the edge over the full 90 minutes: during this period, they averaged 1.4 goals scored and 0.6 conceded, compared with 0.4 and 1.8 for the visitors. Although a half-time draw remains a significant possibility, the first-half record and the visitors’ poor scoring form point primarily to the 1/1 HT/FT selection.