Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen: match statistics

Augsburg opened the season with 2 wins, scoring 7 goals and conceding just 1, while at home they won their only match so far without conceding. The hosts create a high volume of chances at their own stadium, averaging 24 shots, including 13 on target, with an xG of 2.79 compared with Bayer Leverkusen’s 2.14 away from home. Leverkusen dominate possession, averaging 67%, but lost their only away match, conceded 3 goals and failed to keep a clean sheet. Augsburg are also more efficient at home, averaging 3 goals with a 13% shot-conversion rate, while the visitors average 2 goals per match and a 10% conversion rate. Recent form over the last five matches also slightly favors the hosts, who have won 4 times, making an Augsburg victory the most likely outcome.

The case for goals from both sides is supported by recent results: Augsburg have averaged 2.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, while Bayer Leverkusen have scored 2.6 and conceded 1.2 goals per match. In their last five matches, BTTS occurred in 40% of Augsburg’s games and 60% of Bayer’s, compared with a league average of 56%. Both teams create quality chances, with average xG figures of 1.72 and 1.84, while Augsburg allow opponents 1.69 xG. Augsburg have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their home matches so far, which clearly strengthens the BTTS - No option; however, this is a small sample and contrasts with Bayer’s attacking potential of 2.14 xG. BTTS - Yes is therefore slightly more likely, mainly due to both teams’ high current goal production and Augsburg’s defensive vulnerability in their recent form.

Both teams have been highly offensive in their last five matches: Augsburg averaged 2.4 goals scored, while Bayer Leverkusen averaged 2.6, with a combined average of 3.8 total goals in each team’s matches. The 2.5-goal line was surpassed in 80% of Augsburg’s last five matches and in all five of Leverkusen’s games. Their creative potential also points towards goals, as the average xG from the last five matches stands at 1.72 for the home side and 1.84 for the visitors. During this period, Augsburg conceded 1.4 goals per match, while Leverkusen conceded 1.2, reducing the likelihood of a very low-scoring game. The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals, as the projected total of 3.30 goals provides a clear margin above this line, even if finishing is less efficient than in their recent performances.

Bayer Leverkusen have been starting matches more strongly in their recent run: they were leading at the break in 40% of their games, scoring an average of 1.0 goals before half-time and conceding 0.8, while Augsburg scored only 0.6 and conceded 1.2 on average. Augsburg were trailing at half-time in 40% of their last five matches, whereas Bayer found themselves in that situation only 20% of the time, reinforcing the scenario of the visitors holding the advantage in the first half. Leverkusen also maintain strong efficiency after the interval, averaging 1.6 goals scored and just 0.4 conceded, giving them a solid basis for preserving a lead. Augsburg are dangerous after half-time, averaging 1.8 goals scored, but Bayer conceded only 1.2 goals per match on average across their last five appearances. The most likely outcome therefore remains an HT/FT scenario in which the visitors take the lead before the break and secure the win by full-time.