Augsburg vs Bayern München: match statistics

Bayern have won 4 of their last 5 matches, conceding just 2 goals in that run, while Augsburg have recorded 2 wins and conceded 8 goals. Away from home, Bayern create chances worth an average xG of 2.58, while Augsburg allow opponents chances worth 2.05 xG at home, which points in Bayern’s favour. However, Augsburg remain dangerous on their own ground: they score an average of 2.5 goals and register 9 shots on target per match, so an away win is far from certain. Further caution is warranted by the fact that Bayern have averaged just 1 goal per game away from home so far, despite the high quality of the chances they create. Their stronger recent form and more solid defence tip the prediction in favour of the visitors.

Bayern have averaged 3.6 goals in their last five matches, while Augsburg have conceded 1.6, making an away goal highly likely. The greater uncertainty is the hosts’ finishing: Augsburg have recently scored 2.6 goals per match and had BTTS in 80% of those games, but Bayern have conceded just 0.4 goals per match and recorded only 0.48 xG conceded. In Augsburg’s home matches and Bayern’s away matches so far, both teams have scored in 50% of games, which limits the case for BTTS - Yes. Despite Bayern’s strong defence, Augsburg’s attack provides sufficient grounds to consider both teams scoring slightly more likely than at least one side failing to score.

In their last 5 matches, Augsburg scored an average of 2,6 goals but conceded 1,6, while Bayern scored 3,6 goals and conceded just 0,4. The visitors’ attacking advantage is also reflected in xG: Bayern have averaged 2,81 xG recently, while Augsburg have allowed opponents 2,23 xG. Over 2.5 goals landed in all 5 of Augsburg’s last matches and in 4 of Bayern’s 5, although the visitors’ solid defense makes higher lines less certain. Therefore, Over 1.5 goals is the safest pick: a projected total of 3,43 goals gives this line a clearer edge than Over 2.5 and Over 3.5.

The strongest pick is Bayern to lead at the break and win the match: in their last five matches, the visitors won four times, scoring an average of 3.6 goals and conceding 0.4, while Augsburg won twice, scoring 2.6 goals and conceding 1.6. Bayern led at half-time in 60% of those matches and scored an average of 1.2 goals before the break, compared with Augsburg’s 0.5. Bayern’s ability to maintain their advantage is also supported by their second-half effectiveness: they scored an average of 2.4 goals and conceded just 0.2 in their most recent run. However, Augsburg led at half-time and won both of the home matches included, so their home advantage poses a significant risk to this pick. The home sample covers only two matches, while the broader five-match run points more clearly to Bayern as the team capable of both taking the lead and holding on to win.