Austin II vs Minnesota United II: match statistics
Austin II vs Minnesota United II: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Austin II played Minnesota United II in MLS Next Pro (United States). The match was played on 13 July 2026. Final score: 2:3.
Current form
Austin II: 5-0-0, 3.00 points/match. Minnesota United II: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Austin II scores 2.13 and concedes 0.81 goals per match. Minnesota United II scores 1.39 and concedes 1.61. League average: 3.23 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Austin II 50%, Minnesota United II 50%. Over 2.5: Austin II 50%, Minnesota United II 56%. League level: BTTS 61%, Over 2.5 65%.
xG, shots and style
Austin II has higher xG: 1.62 vs 1.60. Austin II: 13.5 shots per match, Minnesota United II: 13.6.
Match halves
Austin II: half-time lead 56%, second-half goals 1.13. Minnesota United II: half-time lead 33%, second-half goals 0.72.
Goals by minute
Austin II: 61-75 (10 goals). Minnesota United II: 16-30 (6 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
MLS Next Pro: 3.23 goals per match, BTTS 61%, Over 2.5 65%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 5 previous H2H matches were available: 1-1-3. Average goals 2.80, BTTS 60%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Austin II are top of the table and score an average of 2.22 goals per home match with an xG of 1.51; this season they have 12 wins, 3 draws and only 1 loss, and have won all 5 of their last 5 matches. Minnesota United II sit 16th, score an average of 1.00 goal away and concede 1.78 with an xG of 1.33; in their last 5 matches the visitors have just 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses, scoring 8 and conceding 12. Additionally, Austin have 0% home matches without scoring and average 4.67 shots on target per game at home, while Minnesota have 44% of away matches goalless and only 2.44 shots on target on the road. The efficiency gap is significant: home shot conversion is 17% versus 8% for the visitors, which translates to 2.22 goals for the hosts versus 1.00 for the visitors despite relatively similar xG. Based on this I tip a home win as the most likely outcome.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Primary signal favors BTTS: the league has a seasonal BTTS rate of 62%, and both teams recorded 60% BTTS in their last 5 matches. Austin II posts a season goals average of 1.78 and xG 1.86 with 6.22 on-target shots per game, and in the last 5 matches averaged 2.4 scored and only 0.8 conceded, indicating strong offensive form and good score maintenance. Minnesota United II has a season goals average of 1.0 and xG 1.33 with only 2.44 on-target shots, but in the last 5 they averaged 1.6 scored and 2.4 conceded, so they can still score despite a weaker season average. Clean sheet analysis shows 33% of Austin matches without conceding versus 11% for Minnesota; the approximate calculation 1-(1-0.33)*(1-0.11) ≈ 40% gives the probability for BTTS 'No', which when confronted with the higher BTTS indicators (league 62%, last 5 games 60%) leaves roughly a 60% chance for BTTS 'Yes', therefore I recommend the "Yes" selection.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The model based on xG and averages indicates 1.75 expected goals for Austin II (attacking xG 1.86 and Minnesota II conceded xG 1.64) and 1.34 for Minnesota United II (xG 1.33 and conceded xG by Austin 1.35), totaling 3.09 expected goals. With λ=3.09 the probability distribution yields roughly an 81% chance of over 1.5 goals, ~60% for over 2.5 and ~37% for over 3.5 goals. Supporting this are the last 5 matches: Austin II scored on average 2.4 goals, Minnesota II 1.6 (4.0 combined), and the home side averages 6.22 shots on target vs. 2.44 for the visitors, increasing the likelihood of goals. Season-long Over 2.5 rates are 44% for hosts and 67% for visitors, and the league has 66% of matches over 2.5 goals, so the market also leans toward three-plus goal games. For these reasons the strongest signal is over 1.5 (high 81% probability and clear statistical edge), therefore I recommend over 1.5.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Austin II shows a strong signal for a lead at the break and a Half-Time/Full-Time win — they average 0.89 goals by half-time and led at the break in 4 matches this season (44%), and in the last 5 matches they led at the break in 4 of 5 (80%). Their xG is 1.86 versus Minnesota’s 1.33, with 6.22 shots on target compared to the visitors’ 2.44, confirming a clear offensive advantage. Minnesota United II averages only 0.44 goals by half-time and led at the break in 2 matches (22%), conceding the lead at half-time in 5 (56%), so scenarios starting with “2” are unlikely. Considering Austin II’s 100% win rate in the last 5 matches and superior HT metrics (1.4 average goals by half-time in the last 5 vs. 0.8 for Minnesota), I assign the highest probability to the 1/1 scenario (50%); the second-strongest signal is draw at half-time with a home win (X/1, 22%); final draw is assessed at 12%.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Austin II | Minnesota United II | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 42% | 32% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.37 | 0.32 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Austin II is 275% better for: last-5 form.
3 pts / match - Austin II · 0.8 pts / match - Minnesota United II
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Austin II is 53% better for: goals scored per match.
2.13 goals / match - Austin II · 1.39 goals / match - Minnesota United II
Austin II is 99% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.81 goals / match - Austin II · 1.61 goals / match - Minnesota United II
Austin II scores in 100% of matches (16 of 16 matches), while Minnesota United II keeps a clean sheet in 22% (4 of 18 matches).
Minnesota United II scores in 67% of matches (12 of 18 matches), while Austin II keeps a clean sheet in 50% (8 of 16 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Austin II
Over / Under - Minnesota United II
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Austin II is 56% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
2 pts / match - Austin II · 1.28 pts / match - Minnesota United II
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Austin II - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 56% of matches and wins 75%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Minnesota United II - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 33% of matches and wins 39%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 20% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +6 | +2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 2.2 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 80% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 20% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -3 | -1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (10 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (6 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Austin II
Minnesota United II
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (MLS Next Pro).
Teams vs league
| Austin II | Liga | Minnesota United II | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.94 | 3.23 | ▼ 3.00 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 50% | 61% | ▼ 50% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 50% | 65% | ▼ 56% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 50% | 22% | • 22% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 69% | 75% | ▲ 78% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 81% | 84% | ▼ 72% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (5): Austin II 1 - 1 - 3 Minnesota United II. Average goals 2.80, both teams scored in 60% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Austin II vs Minnesota United II?
The MLS Next Pro match finished Austin II 2:3 Minnesota United II. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Austin II and Minnesota United II?
In the last 5 head-to-head matches Austin II won 1, Minnesota United II won 3 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 2.80 goals, with both teams scoring in 60% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Austin II vs Minnesota United II?
Austin II score 2.13 goals per game on average and Minnesota United II 1.39. The MLS Next Pro average is 3.23 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 65% of games. Both teams score in 50% of Austin II's matches and 50% of Minnesota United II's.
What form are Austin II and Minnesota United II in?
Over the last 5 games Austin II have a 5-0-0 record (3.00 points per game) and Minnesota United II 1-1-3 (0.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Austin II vs Minnesota United II?
The statistical background for Austin II vs Minnesota United II — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.