Austria Wien vs Sturm Graz: match statistics

Sturm Graz hold a slight edge thanks to creating more chances away from home: they average 17.25 shots and an xG of 1.85, while Austria Wien record 9.33 shots and an xG of 1.21 at home. The hosts score just 0.67 goals per match on their own ground and have failed to score in 67% of such fixtures, increasing the risk that they will be unable to capitalise on the visitors’ defensive weaknesses. That vulnerability matters, as Sturm concede an average of 1.75 goals away from home, more than Austria do at home (1.33). Both teams have earned 7 points from their last five matches, although Austria have scored 11 goals in that span compared with Sturm’s 7. The visitors’ higher xG points towards a win, but their two defeats in four away matches so far mean that this outcome cannot be considered a clear favourite.

BTTS has landed in 67% of Austria Wien’s matches and 50% of Sturm Graz’s, while the figure was 60% for each team across their last 5 matches. Austria have yet to finish a match without scoring, whereas Sturm have failed to score in 25% of their games, so there is greater uncertainty over the visitors’ goal. However, their scoring prospects are supported by an average xG of 1.85, compared with the 1.81 xG Austria concede. The hosts average 1.33 goals scored, while Sturm concede 1.75, which also points towards both teams scoring. In their last 5 appearances, both sides conceded an average of 1.6 goals per match, making a goal from each team the more likely scenario.

In Austria Wien’s last 5 matches, an average of 3.8 goals were scored, compared with 3.0 in Sturm Graz’s fixtures; both teams went Over 2.5 goals in 80% of their matches during this period. Austria have recently averaged 2.2 goals scored, while Sturm have averaged 1.4, although their season averages in the respective home and away roles are lower, at 1.33 and 1.0. Their attacking potential is supported by xG figures of 1.66 for the hosts and 1.85 for the visitors, pointing to goal-scoring chances at both ends. The strongest signal, however, is for Over 1.5 goals: this line landed in 100% of Sturm’s specified away matches and 67% of Austria’s home games. With a predicted total of 2.93 goals, this is a safer pick than backing Over 2.5 goals, particularly given that the hosts went Over the higher line in only 33% of their home matches.

A draw at half-time is the most likely outcome: Austria Wien went into the break level in 2 of their 3 home matches, while Sturm Graz did so in 3 of 4 away matches; neither team was leading at half-time in these games. After the break, the advantage lies with the hosts, who score an average of 1.0 goals at home in the second half and have conceded none, while Sturm concede an average of 1.0 goals in the second half away from home. Austria average 2.33 points per home match, compared with Sturm’s 1.00 points per away match, reinforcing the prospect of a home win. However, caution is warranted, as Sturm’s average xG is 1.85 compared with Austria’s 1.66, meaning the visitors could still pose a threat despite their weaker results. The combination of frequent half-time draws and Austria’s stronger performances after the break makes X/1 the strongest pick.