Avaí vs Novorizontino: match statistics
Avaí vs Novorizontino: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Avaí played Novorizontino in Serie B (Brazil). The match was played on 3 May 2026. Final score: 3:3.
Current form
Avaí: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match. Novorizontino: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Avaí scores 1.17 and concedes 1.00 goals per match. Novorizontino scores 1.17 and concedes 1.00. League average: 2.16 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Avaí 50%, Novorizontino 50%. Over 2.5: Avaí 50%, Novorizontino 50%. League level: BTTS 49%, Over 2.5 42%.
xG, shots and style
Novorizontino has higher xG: 1.74 vs 1.42. Avaí: 13.3 shots per match, Novorizontino: 16.2.
Match halves
Avaí: half-time lead 17%, second-half goals 0.67. Novorizontino: half-time lead 0%, second-half goals 1.00.
Goals by minute
Avaí: 31-45+ (2 goals). Novorizontino: 61-75 (4 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Serie B: 2.16 goals per match, BTTS 49%, Over 2.5 42%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 0-2-0. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I forecast a Novorizontino (2) win based on superior form and recent 5-match metrics: the visitors average 1.6 points per game versus Avai’s 1.0, scoring 6 and conceding only 3 in that span while Avai scored 5 and conceded 6. Novorizontino is also more effective in the penalty area — on average 4 on-target shots from 11.33 attempts and a conversion rate around 9%, versus 3.67 on-target from 13.67 attempts and 7% for the hosts. Defensively the visitors look more stable away, conceding just 0.33 goals per game compared to Avai’s 0.67 conceded at home, with both teams keeping a clean sheet in 67% of matches. Avai do have higher expected xG at home (1.48 vs 1.30 xG for the visitors) and more shots (13.67 vs 11.33), giving them a real chance to create opportunities, but lower efficiency (7% vs 9%) weakens that edge. Therefore I assign probabilities: 40% for an away win, 30% for a draw and 30% for a home win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Novorizontino has a very strong defense: seasonal clean sheet rate is 67% and they concede only 0.33 goals per match on average, which strongly favors No BTTS. In the last 5 matches the visitors conceded 3 goals (0.6 avg), while Avaí conceded 6 goals (1.2 avg), which amplifies Novorizontino's defensive edge. However, Avaí creates a lot of chances — the home side’s seasonal xG is 2.18 versus 1.3 xG for the visitors and 6.33 shots on target vs 4.0, and the home side’s seasonal BTTS is 100%, so the hosts have a real scoring opportunity. Considering the league clean sheet rate of 63% and the comparison 67% (visitors’ clean sheets) vs 100% (home BTTS), No BTTS appears more likely; therefore I estimate BTTS 40% and No BTTS 60%.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The model is xG-based: Avai’s attacking xG is 2.18, Novorizontino’s attacking xG is 1.30, and conceded xG is 1.01 (Avai) and 1.17 (Nov), yielding expected ~1.68 goals for Avai and ~1.16 for Novorizontino (total 2.84). At home Avai averages 21.0 shots and 6.33 shots on target, and their matches have a 100% rate over 1.5 goals and 67% over 2.5, which strongly supports an over edge. Novorizontino away averages only 4.0 shots on target, concedes on average 0.33 goals season-to-date and has 67% clean sheets, which limits high opponent scoring, but their xG 1.30 indicates they can still score ~1.16 goals. Considering the combined expected 2.84 goals and the contrast (Avai high shot volume and high >1.5 share vs. Nov’s defensive away profile with 67% clean sheets), the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (~92% probability); Over 2.5 remains moderately likely (~68%), while Over 3.5 has a low chance (~26%).
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
At half-time the most likely outcome is a draw: both teams were level at the break in 3 of 3 matches (100%), and in the last 5 fixtures the half-time draw rate was 80% for Avai and 100% for Novorizontino. In the second half the visitors have the greater chances of winning — the average points in the last 5 matches are 1.6 for Novorizontino versus 1.0 for Avai, and the season average goals conceded is 0.33 (away) versus 1.67 (home); additionally the visitors have 67% clean sheets this season while the hosts have 0%. Although Avai generates more chances (xG 2.18 and on average 21 shots per game vs xG 1.3 and 11.33 shots for Novorizontino), their conversion rate is only 6% compared to 9% for the visitors, so the creation advantage does not translate into better finishing. Furthermore most goals are scored after the break (in the second half Avai have goals in 100% of games vs 67% for Novorizontino), which favors the X/2 scenario (draw at half-time, visitors win at full-time) — this is my pick.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Avaí | Novorizontino | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 28% | 32% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.32 | 0.23 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Novorizontino is 60% better for: last-5 form.
1 pts / match - Avaí · 1.6 pts / match - Novorizontino
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Avaí scores in 83% of matches (5 of 6 matches), while Novorizontino keeps a clean sheet in 33% (2 of 6 matches).
Novorizontino scores in 67% of matches (4 of 6 matches), while Avaí keeps a clean sheet in 50% (3 of 6 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Avaí
Over / Under - Novorizontino
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Avaí is 17% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.17 pts / match - Avaí · 1 pts / match - Novorizontino
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Avaí - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 17% of matches and wins 33%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Novorizontino - second-half results
Concedes 0.7 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -1 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 0.4 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 20% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 80% | 40% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (2 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (4 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Avaí
Novorizontino
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Serie B).
Teams vs league
| Avaí | Liga | Novorizontino | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.17 | 2.16 | • 2.17 |
| Both teams scored | • 50% | 49% | • 50% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 50% | 42% | ▲ 50% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 50% | 32% | • 33% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 67% | 58% | ▼ 17% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 83% | 75% | ▲ 83% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Avaí 0 - 2 - 0 Novorizontino. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Avaí vs Novorizontino?
The Serie B match finished Avaí 3:3 Novorizontino. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Avaí and Novorizontino?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Avaí won 0, Novorizontino won 0 and 2 ended level. These games averaged 2.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Avaí vs Novorizontino?
Avaí score 1.17 goals per game on average and Novorizontino 1.17. The Serie B average is 2.16 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 42% of games. Both teams score in 50% of Avaí's matches and 50% of Novorizontino's.
What form are Avaí and Novorizontino in?
Over the last 5 games Avaí have a 1-2-2 record (1.00 points per game) and Novorizontino 2-2-1 (1.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Avaí vs Novorizontino?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Avaí vs Novorizontino: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.