Avaí vs Vila Nova: match statistics

Avaí sit only 17th, but their home numbers are more favorable than Vila Nova’s away profile: they average 1.08 goals scored compared with the visitors’ 0.79, while conceding 1.00 against 1.36. The hosts also create more chances, averaging 14.38 shots and an xG of 1.46, whereas Vila Nova record 11.57 shots and an xG of 1.23 away from home. Particularly significant is the fact that the visitors failed to score in 50% of their away matches, while Avaí kept a clean sheet in 38% of their home games. Vila Nova nevertheless come into the match in better current form, with 10 goals and 10 points from their last 5 rounds, compared with Avaí’s 5 goals and 6 points. The visitors’ higher position in the table—3rd compared with 17th—reduces confidence in the pick, but the hosts’ advantage in the home-away metrics slightly favors an Avaí win.

The strong signal for BTTS - No is driven primarily by Vila Nova’s performances: the team failed to score in 50% of its matches, while its season BTTS rate is just 29%, compared with 48% for the league as a whole. BTTS - No has landed in each of the visitors’ last 5 matches, despite them scoring 10 goals during that period, indicating that their games often end with one side drawing a blank. Avaí have a solid defence, conceding an average of 0.85 goals per match and keeping a clean sheet in 38% of their appearances, while Vila Nova manage just 3.07 shots on target per game. The hosts should create more chances, as their xG stands at 1.72 compared with the opponent’s 1.42 xG conceded, but Vila Nova’s low average of 0.79 goals limits the likelihood of both teams scoring. The most probable scenario is therefore one in which Avaí score and at least one team finishes the match without a goal.

The strongest signal is Under 3.5 goals, as this outcome occurred in 77% of Avaí’s matches and as many as 86% of Vila Nova’s games. The hosts create chances worth an average of 1.72 xG at home, but Vila Nova score only 0.79 goals per match away from home and fail to score in 50% of their games. Avaí’s defence allows an average of 1.09 xG, further limiting the prospect of a high-scoring game for the visitors. The teams’ last five matches each produced at least three goals in 40% of cases, but both teams failing to score in Vila Nova’s last five outings points instead to a result in the 1:0, 2:0 or 2:1 range.

Avaí win 77% of their home matches, scoring an average of 2.15 goals and conceding just 0.85, while Vila Nova lose as many as 50% of their away games and score only 0.79 goals per match. The hosts’ advantage is particularly evident before half-time: they led at the break in 54% of their matches, scoring an average of 1.15 goals during that period, whereas the visitors took the lead in only 14% of their away games and averaged just 0.29 goals. Avaí also create more high-quality chances, recording an xG of 1.72 compared with their opponents’ 1.23, as well as 5.69 shots on target per match versus 3.07. However, the last five matches advise against excessive confidence, as the hosts failed to lead at half-time in any of them, while Vila Nova won 3 of their last 5 games. Despite this improvement in the visitors’ form, the scenario of Avaí leading at the break and maintaining their advantage until full-time remains the strongest HT/FT angle, supported by the hosts’ significantly better home data.