AVS vs CD Feirense: match statistics

Both teams lost their only previous match in this home–away configuration and failed to score, so the risk of a draw remains high. However, CD Feirense create significantly better chances: their average away xG stands at 2.13 compared with AVS’s home figure of just 0.63, while the visitors also attempt 22 shots per match versus 6 for the hosts. AVS average only 33% possession at home and allow opponents an xG of 2.18, whereas Feirense concede an average xG of 1.01. The hosts have been slightly more consistent over their last five matches, scoring 6 goals and taking 6 points compared with Feirense’s 3 goals and 2 points, but the visitors’ superiority in chance creation should tip the result in their favour. Efficiency will be crucial, as neither team has yet found the net in their respective previous home and away fixtures.

The stronger signal points to BTTS - No, as in the current league data neither team has yet recorded a match in which both sides scored, while AVS kept a clean sheet in 50% of its games. Feirense have yet to score and have averaged just 0.6 goals over their last five matches, despite recording an average xG of 1.38. AVS averaged 1.2 goals across their last five outings, but their xG dropped to 0.98, reducing confidence that the hosts will capitalise on their opponents’ weakness. On the other hand, AVS allowed a high average opponent xG of 2.06 during this run, so a Feirense goal is a realistic possibility. However, the overall league BTTS rate is only 44%, and the visitors’ attacking profile supports a scenario in which at least one team fails to score.

Data from the current matches involving both teams in this setup points to a very low-scoring outcome: both AVS and Feirense have so far recorded 100% of their matches below 2.5 and 3.5 goals. The broader sample of the last five matches is slightly more open, but Over 2.5 goals has landed in only 40% of each team’s games. AVS have averaged 1.2 goals during this period, while Feirense have averaged 0.6, with the visitors still failing to score in the available season data. Feirense do create more chances, however, recording an average xG of 1.38 across their last five matches compared with AVS’s 0.98. Therefore, a 2.25-goal projection does not justify the extremely low 1.5 line. The strongest edge is on Under 3.5, as even with increased attacking activity from the visitors, the four-goal threshold clearly exceeds the profile of both teams and the league average of 2.19 goals.

The strongest HT/FT scenario is a draw at half-time followed by an AVS win, as the hosts were level at the break in 3 of their last 5 matches, while Feirense were trailing at that stage in 3 of 5 games. The opening stages should be cautious: AVS averaged just 0.2 goals before half-time, and neither team exceeded two first-half goals in any of their last 5 matches. After the interval, the advantage shifts to the hosts, who have averaged 1.0 goals in the second half across their last five appearances, compared with Feirense’s 0.4. AVS are also in clearly better current form, averaging 1.2 points per match and losing only once in their last five fixtures, whereas the visitors have failed to win any of their five and have lost three. Despite Feirense’s higher xG, 2.13 compared with 1.17, their average goals scored over the last five matches is only 0.6, which limits the credibility of the away-win scenario.