AVS vs Farense: match statistics

Farense are 8th, while AVS are 13th, and over their last five matches the visitors have averaged 1.4 points per game compared with 1.0 for the hosts. Away from home, the Faro-based side average 2 goals, 16.5 shots and 7 shots on target per match, clearly outperforming AVS, who average 1 goal, 10.5 shots and 4 attempts on target. The visitors’ advantage is also evident in the quality of chances created: their average xG stands at 1.89, compared with 1.26 for AVS. AVS concede just 0.5 goals per home match, but allow opponents an xG of 1.97, suggesting that their defensive results to date may be difficult to sustain against such an active attack. Farense have not been held scoreless in any away match, making a narrow victory for the visitors the most likely outcome.

The signal for both teams to score is very strong: AVS and Farense have recorded BTTS at a rate of 100% in the current campaign, and neither team has kept a clean sheet so far. The hosts score an average of 1.5 goals and concede 1.0, while the visitors score 2.0 goals and concede 1.5 per match. Their attacking potential is supported by high average xG figures of 1.98 for AVS and 1.89 for Farense, with AVS allowing opponents as much as 2.25 xG across their last five matches. BTTS landed in 60% of AVS's and 80% of Farense's last five games, while the visitors conceded an average of 1.6 goals during this period. Although the league-wide BTTS average is only 41%, the combination of two teams yet to keep a clean sheet and their consistent chance creation clearly favours a scenario in which both teams score.

The signal for at least two goals is very strong, as both AVS and Farense have gone over the 1.5-goal line in 100% of their league matches so far. The two teams average 1.5 and 2.0 goals scored respectively, and neither has kept a clean sheet yet. Their creative potential also supports an open game: AVS’s average xG is 1.98, while Farense’s stands at 1.89, with 18.0 and 16.5 shots per match respectively. In their last five matches, Farense recorded 1.93 xG, while AVS’s opponents created as much as 2.25 xG on average, which further boosts the outlook for the visitors. The Over 1.5 line offers a clearer edge than higher goal lines, as it provides protection against a 1:1 or 2:0 result.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by an AVS victory, as the hosts were level after 45 minutes in 80% of their last five matches, compared with 60% for Farense; neither team held a lead during that period. First halves are clearly cautious: AVS score an average of 0.2 goals and concede 0.4, while Farense also score 0.2 goals but concede 0.6. After the break, AVS have the more favorable profile, scoring an average of 1.5 goals and conceding just 0.5, while also winning the second half in 100% of the available matches. The hosts also have a stronger full-season home record, scoring 1.5 goals per match and conceding 1.0, whereas Farense concede an average of 1.5 goals away from home. Although the visitors are offensively effective, AVS’s xG stands at 1.98 compared with Farense’s 1.89, while the hosts’ defensive xG of 1.00 is significantly better than the visitors’ 1.78.