Ayr United vs Dunfermline Athletic: match statistics
Ayr United vs Dunfermline Athletic: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Ayr United played Dunfermline Athletic in Championship (Scotland). The match was played on 10 October 2026. Venue: Somerset Park. Final score: 1:1.
Current form
Ayr United: 2-0-3, 1.20 points/match. Dunfermline Athletic: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Ayr United scores 1.00 and concedes 1.11 goals per match. Dunfermline Athletic scores 0.86 and concedes 0.57. League average: 2.02 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Ayr United 44%, Dunfermline Athletic 29%. Over 2.5: Ayr United 22%, Dunfermline Athletic 0%. League level: BTTS 36%, Over 2.5 29%.
xG, shots and style
Dunfermline Athletic has higher xG: 1.47 vs 1.00. Ayr United: 7.0 shots per match, Dunfermline Athletic: 10.1.
Match halves
Ayr United: half-time lead 44%, second-half goals 0.22. Dunfermline Athletic: half-time lead 14%, second-half goals 0.43.
Goals by minute
Ayr United: 31-45+ (5 goals). Dunfermline Athletic: 0-15 (2 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Championship: 2.02 goals per match, BTTS 36%, Over 2.5 29%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 5 previous H2H matches were available: 2-1-2. Average goals 2.40, BTTS 40%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Dunfermline Athletic arrive in better form, having won 3 of their last 5 matches, while Ayr United have won 2 and lost 3. The visitors concede an average of 0.75 goals away from home and have kept a clean sheet in 50% of those matches, which could restrict the hosts, who score an average of 1 goal at home. On the other hand, Dunfermline score just 0.5 goals per away match and have failed to find the net in half of those games, making them difficult to regard as clear favourites. The teams’ average xG figures are similar — 1.29 for Ayr at home and 1.39 for Dunfermline away — although the visitors hit the target more often, averaging 4.75 shots on target compared with 3.25 for the hosts. With Dunfermline drawing 50% of their away matches and both sides showing limited attacking efficiency, a share of the points looks the most likely outcome.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
The strongest signal points to at least one team failing to score: BTTS occurred in 33% of Ayr United matches and 25% of Dunfermline Athletic matches, compared with a league average of 36%. The hosts keep a clean sheet in 67% of matches and concede just 0.33 goals on average, while the visitors score an average of 0.5 goals and have failed to find the net in 50% of matches. Ayr also have a higher attacking xG average, 1.59 compared with their opponents’ 1.39, supporting a scenario in which the hosts score and the visitors do not. However, caution is warranted: Dunfermline averaged 1.2 goals from an xG of 1.61 in their last five matches, with BTTS landing in 40% of those games.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
In Ayr United’s home matches and Dunfermline Athletic’s away matches so far, neither side has seen more than 2 goals, strongly pointing to a low-scoring game. The hosts concede an average of 0.33 goals at home, while the visitors score just 0.50 goals away, with a shot conversion rate of 5%. The league average of 2.02 goals and the fact that only 28% of matches have featured at least 3 goals also support a cautious outlook. Attacking xG figures of 1.59 for the hosts and 1.39 for the visitors provide some counterbalance, making Under 3.5 goals a safer pick than Under 2.5 goals.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
A draw at half-time is the most likely outcome: Ayr United were level at the break in 2 of their 3 home matches, while Dunfermline Athletic were level at half-time in 3 of their 4 away games. The visitors have yet to score before half-time away from home, although they kept a clean sheet at the break in 3 of those 4 matches, pointing to a closely contested opening. Across the full match, the hosts have the edge: at home they score an average of 1.33 goals and concede 0.33, while Dunfermline score 0.50 and concede 0.75 goals away. Ayr have won 2 of their 3 home matches, and their average xG is 1.59, compared with the 1.14 xG conceded by the visitors away from home. As a result, after a level first half, a home win looks the most likely outcome. However, this pick is not certain, as Dunfermline have won 3 of their last 5 matches in all competitions, while Ayr have won 2.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Ayr United | Dunfermline Athletic | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 41% | 49% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.35 | 0.17 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Dunfermline Athletic is 67% better for: last-5 form.
1.2 pts / match - Ayr United · 2 pts / match - Dunfermline Athletic
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Ayr United is 16% better for: goals scored per match.
1 goals / match - Ayr United · 0.86 goals / match - Dunfermline Athletic
Dunfermline Athletic is 95% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.11 goals / match - Ayr United · 0.57 goals / match - Dunfermline Athletic
Ayr United scores in 67% of matches (6 of 9 matches), while Dunfermline Athletic keeps a clean sheet in 57% (4 of 7 matches).
Dunfermline Athletic scores in 71% of matches (5 of 7 matches), while Ayr United keeps a clean sheet in 22% (2 of 9 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Ayr United
Over / Under - Dunfermline Athletic
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Ayr United is 26% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.44 pts / match - Ayr United · 1.14 pts / match - Dunfermline Athletic
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Ayr United - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 44% of matches and wins 33%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Dunfermline Athletic - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 14% of matches and wins 43%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.8 | 0.4 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 40% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 80% |
| No goal | 40% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -1 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 80% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (5 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (2 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Ayr United
Dunfermline Athletic
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Championship).
Teams vs league
| Ayr United | Liga | Dunfermline Athletic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.11 | 2.02 | ▼ 1.43 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 44% | 36% | ▼ 29% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 22% | 29% | ▼ 0% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 22% | 37% | ▲ 57% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 100% | 67% | ▼ 43% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 44% | 67% | ▼ 57% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (5): Ayr United 2 - 1 - 2 Dunfermline Athletic. Average goals 2.40, both teams scored in 40% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Ayr United vs Dunfermline Athletic?
The Championship match finished Ayr United 1:1 Dunfermline Athletic. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Ayr United and Dunfermline Athletic?
In the last 5 head-to-head matches Ayr United won 2, Dunfermline Athletic won 2 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 2.40 goals, with both teams scoring in 40% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Ayr United vs Dunfermline Athletic?
Ayr United score 1.00 goals per game on average and Dunfermline Athletic 0.86. The Championship average is 2.02 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 29% of games. Both teams score in 44% of Ayr United's matches and 29% of Dunfermline Athletic's.
What form are Ayr United and Dunfermline Athletic in?
Over the last 5 games Ayr United have a 2-0-3 record (1.20 points per game) and Dunfermline Athletic 3-1-1 (2.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Ayr United vs Dunfermline Athletic?
The statistical background for Ayr United vs Dunfermline Athletic — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.