Ayr United vs Greenock Morton: match statistics
Statistical analysis suggests a closely contested match with a draw bias. Ayr United holds a higher league position (5th place), but they are in poor form with only 0.4 points per game in their last five matches and haven't won any of them. The hosts have a balanced home goal difference (-1), yet as many as 46% of their home matches end in a draw. Greenock Morton also draws frequently in away matches (43% of games), although their form is slightly better (0.6 PPG). The visitors score a similar number of goals away (1.14) as the hosts do at home (1.15), but they concede more (1.64 vs 1.23). Considering both teams' high draw rates and Ayr United's poor recent form, a draw appears to be the most likely outcome.
Ayr United vs Greenock Morton: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Ayr United played Greenock Morton in Championship (Scotland). The match was played on 21 March 2026. Final score: 0:1.
Current form
Ayr United: 0-3-2, 0.60 points/match. Greenock Morton: 1-0-4, 0.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Ayr United scores 1.21 and concedes 1.21 goals per match. Greenock Morton scores 1.00 and concedes 1.34. League average: 2.38 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Ayr United 68%, Greenock Morton 55%. Over 2.5: Ayr United 39%, Greenock Morton 38%. League level: BTTS 48%, Over 2.5 43%.
xG, shots and style
Ayr United has higher xG: 1.41 vs 1.16. Ayr United: 10.9 shots per match, Greenock Morton: 9.2.
Match halves
Ayr United: half-time lead 43%, second-half goals 0.39. Greenock Morton: half-time lead 31%, second-half goals 0.52.
Goals by minute
Ayr United: 0-15 (9 goals). Greenock Morton: 16-30 (8 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Championship: 2.38 goals per match, BTTS 48%, Over 2.5 43%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 3 previous H2H matches were available: 1-2-0. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Statistical analysis suggests a closely contested match with a draw bias. Ayr United holds a higher league position (5th place), but they are in poor form with only 0.4 points per game in their last five matches and haven't won any of them. The hosts have a balanced home goal difference (-1), yet as many as 46% of their home matches end in a draw. Greenock Morton also draws frequently in away matches (43% of games), although their form is slightly better (0.6 PPG). The visitors score a similar number of goals away (1.14) as the hosts do at home (1.15), but they concede more (1.64 vs 1.23). Considering both teams' high draw rates and Ayr United's poor recent form, a draw appears to be the most likely outcome.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Ayr United | Greenock Morton | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 39% | 33% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.29 | 0.33 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Ayr United is 21% better for: goals scored per match.
1.21 goals / match - Ayr United · 1 goals / match - Greenock Morton
Ayr United is 11% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.21 goals / match - Ayr United · 1.34 goals / match - Greenock Morton
Ayr United scores in 79% of matches (22 of 28 matches), while Greenock Morton keeps a clean sheet in 24% (7 of 29 matches).
Greenock Morton scores in 69% of matches (20 of 29 matches), while Ayr United keeps a clean sheet in 25% (7 of 28 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Ayr United
Over / Under - Greenock Morton
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Ayr United is 14% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.57 pts / match - Ayr United · 1.38 pts / match - Greenock Morton
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Ayr United - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 43% of matches and wins 25%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Greenock Morton - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 31% of matches and wins 21%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -1 | -2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 1.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 20% |
| No goal | 20% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -5 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (9 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): -4 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (8 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Ayr United
Greenock Morton
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Championship).
Teams vs league
| Ayr United | Liga | Greenock Morton | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.43 | 2.38 | • 2.34 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 68% | 48% | ▲ 55% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 39% | 43% | ▼ 38% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 25% | 33% | ▼ 24% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 79% | 68% | • 69% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 61% | 68% | ▲ 79% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (3): Ayr United 1 - 2 - 0 Greenock Morton. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Ayr United vs Greenock Morton?
The Championship match finished Ayr United 0:1 Greenock Morton. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Ayr United and Greenock Morton?
In the last 3 head-to-head matches Ayr United won 1, Greenock Morton won 0 and 2 ended level. These games averaged 3.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Ayr United vs Greenock Morton?
Ayr United score 1.21 goals per game on average and Greenock Morton 1.00. The Championship average is 2.38 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 43% of games. Both teams score in 68% of Ayr United's matches and 55% of Greenock Morton's.
What form are Ayr United and Greenock Morton in?
Over the last 5 games Ayr United have a 0-3-2 record (0.60 points per game) and Greenock Morton 1-0-4 (0.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Ayr United vs Greenock Morton?
The statistical background for Ayr United vs Greenock Morton — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.