Bahia vs Mirassol: match statistics
Bahia vs Mirassol: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Bahia played Mirassol in Serie A (Brazil). The match was played on 11 October 2026. Venue: Arena Fonte Nova. Final score: 1:0.
Current form
Bahia: 3-0-2, 1.80 points/match. Mirassol: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Bahia scores 1.48 and concedes 1.24 goals per match. Mirassol scores 1.17 and concedes 1.48. League average: 2.66 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Bahia 66%, Mirassol 69%. Over 2.5: Bahia 52%, Mirassol 52%. League level: BTTS 60%, Over 2.5 52%.
xG, shots and style
Bahia has higher xG: 1.58 vs 1.49. Bahia: 14.3 shots per match, Mirassol: 13.4.
Match halves
Bahia: half-time lead 34%, second-half goals 0.66. Mirassol: half-time lead 31%, second-half goals 0.52.
Goals by minute
Bahia: 31-45+ (13 goals). Mirassol: 16-30 (9 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Serie A: 2.66 goals per match, BTTS 60%, Over 2.5 52%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 3 previous H2H matches were available: 1-1-1. Average goals 3.67, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Bahia sit 5th and have won 4 of their last 5 matches, while 15th-placed Mirassol have recorded 2 wins over the same period. At home, the hosts average 1.57 goals and 5.71 shots on target per match; away, the visitors average 0.92 goals and 3.31 shots on target. Bahia’s advantage in chance quality is reflected in their home xG of 1.73, compared with Mirassol’s away xG of 1.24, while the visitors have failed to score in 38% of their away matches. Mirassol concede an average of 1.62 goals away from home and have yet to keep a clean sheet on the road, which favors the hosts, although 43% of Bahia’s home matches have ended in a draw.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
BTTS landed in 73% of Bahia’s matches and 62% of Mirassol’s, both above the league average of 59%. Bahia have a solid foundation for scoring: they average 1.75 xG at home, while Mirassol allow opponents 1.68 xG and have not kept a clean sheet. The visitors’ chances are less certain, as they average 0.92 goals away from home and failed to score in 38% of their matches. However, Bahia concede an average of 1.4 goals at home and have kept a clean sheet in only 13% of matches. In the last five games, both teams scored in 80% of Bahia’s matches and 60% of Mirassol’s. So, despite the risk of the visitors failing to score, it is more likely that both sides will find the net (BTTS - Yes / Goal/Goal).
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals: this total was reached in 80% of Bahia’s matches and 69% of Mirassol’s. Bahia generate an average of 1.75 xG, while Mirassol allow opponents 1.68 xG, giving the hosts a solid platform to score. The visitors average 0.92 goals, but Bahia concede 1.40 goals per match, so Mirassol could also contribute to the scoreline. Over their last five matches, Bahia averaged 2.2 goals and Mirassol 1.4, strengthening the case for at least two goals. The 2.5 line is less certain, having been exceeded in 60% of Bahia’s matches but only 46% of Mirassol’s.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Bahia led at the break in 40% of matches, while Mirassol were trailing at half-time in 38%, supporting the case for an early home advantage. Across their last five matches, Bahia averaged 1.4 goals before half-time, while Mirassol failed to score in the first half in 4 of 5 appearances. The chances of Bahia holding their lead are also supported by the average xG figures: 1.75 for Bahia compared with 1.24 for Mirassol, as well as 5.67 shots on target per match for the hosts against 3.31 for the visitors. Bahia have won 4 of their last 5 matches, and Mirassol have lost 62% of their matches this season, making a Bahia lead at the break and at full-time the strongest scenario. However, the risk of a half-time draw remains significant, as Bahia went into the break level in 47% of matches.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Bahia | Mirassol | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 34% | 33% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Bahia is 13% better for: last-5 form.
1.8 pts / match - Bahia · 1.6 pts / match - Mirassol
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Bahia is 26% better for: goals scored per match.
1.48 goals / match - Bahia · 1.17 goals / match - Mirassol
Bahia is 19% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.24 goals / match - Bahia · 1.48 goals / match - Mirassol
Bahia scores in 86% of matches (25 of 29 matches), while Mirassol keeps a clean sheet in 7% (2 of 29 matches).
Mirassol scores in 76% of matches (22 of 29 matches), while Bahia keeps a clean sheet in 28% (8 of 29 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Bahia
Over / Under - Mirassol
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Bahia - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 34% of matches and wins 41%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Mirassol - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 31% of matches and wins 28%. Usually protects the lead until full-time.
Concedes 0.4 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 40% |
| No goal | 20% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +2 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 80% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -2 | +3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (13 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): +5 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (9 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (14). Late-goal balance (76-90): -8 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Bahia
Mirassol
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Serie A).
Teams vs league
| Bahia | Liga | Mirassol | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.72 | 2.66 | • 2.66 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 66% | 60% | ▲ 69% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | • 52% | 52% | • 52% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 28% | 23% | ▼ 7% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 86% | 75% | ▼ 72% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 66% | 79% | ▲ 83% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (3): Bahia 1 - 1 - 1 Mirassol. Average goals 3.67, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Bahia vs Mirassol?
The Serie A match finished Bahia 1:0 Mirassol. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Mirassol?
In the last 3 head-to-head matches Bahia won 1, Mirassol won 1 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 3.67 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Bahia vs Mirassol?
Bahia score 1.48 goals per game on average and Mirassol 1.17. The Serie A average is 2.66 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 52% of games. Both teams score in 66% of Bahia's matches and 69% of Mirassol's.
What form are Bahia and Mirassol in?
Over the last 5 games Bahia have a 3-0-2 record (1.80 points per game) and Mirassol 2-2-1 (1.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Bahia vs Mirassol?
The statistical background for Bahia vs Mirassol — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.