Ballymena United vs Carrick Rangers: match statistics

Carrick Rangers sit 4th, while Ballymena United are ninth, and the visitors have won 3 of their last 5 matches compared with just 1 victory for the hosts. Ballymena have lost every home game so far, failed to score in any of them, and conceded an average of 2 goals per match. Carrick average 2 goals scored away from home, win 67% of their away fixtures, and allow opponents just 0.67 goals per game. The visitors’ advantage is also evident in the quality of chances created: their away xG stands at 1.44, compared with Ballymena’s 0.93 at home, while the hosts allow chances worth 1.84 xG. Ballymena have also conceded 9 goals in their last 5 matches, making a victory for the more clinical and defensively consistent visitors the most likely outcome.

Season-long BTTS stands at just 0% for Ballymena United and 33% for Carrick Rangers, compared with a league average of 39%. The hosts score only 0.5 goals per home match, failed to score in 50% of their games, while Carrick concede just 0.67 goals per away match. Although Ballymena have improved their scoring average to 1.6 goals over their last five matches and recorded BTTS in 60% of those games, Carrick kept a clean sheet in 33% of matches and conceded only 0.8 goals per game during this run. The visitors are an attacking threat, averaging 2.0 goals away from home, but the main risk to the both-teams-to-score scenario remains the hosts’ low efficiency: a 4% shot-conversion rate compared with Carrick’s 15%. BTTS - No is therefore the most likely outcome, meaning at least Ballymena are expected not to score.

The projected total of 2.60 goals is based on the combination of the home side’s attacking potential, with an average xG of 1.62, Carrick’s defence allowing an average of 1.67 xG, and the visitors’ attack averaging 1.44 xG against Ballymena’s 1.05 xG conceded. In their last 5 matches, Ballymena scored 1.6 goals but conceded as many as 1.8, while Carrick scored 1.4 and allowed opponents just 0.8 goals per game. Despite the attacking signal from the hosts’ recent form, Ballymena have not yet had a match above 3.5 goals in the season data, while Carrick stayed below this line in 67% of matches. The visitors are also a relatively solid defensive team, conceding just 0.67 goals per game on average this season, which limits the likelihood of a very high-scoring game. Under 3.5 goals is therefore the strongest option: scenarios with 2 or 3 goals are clearly more likely than a match featuring at least 4 goals.

The most likely HT/FT outcome is a draw at half-time followed by a Carrick Rangers win, as Ballymena have been level at the break in 100% of their home matches, with neither scoring nor conceding before half-time. However, Carrick have a clearly superior full-match record away from home: they win 67% of their matches, score an average of 2.00 goals and concede just 0.67. In their last five matches, the visitors have not been behind at half-time on any occasion and have been level at the break in 60% of those first halves, reinforcing the prospect of a cautious opening. After the interval, both teams regularly feature in matches with at least one goal, in 80% and 100% of their respective last five appearances, but Ballymena's weaker form, with 3 defeats in 5 matches, points to an away advantage in the closing stages.