Ballymena United vs Glentoran: match statistics

Ballymena United hold a slight edge in recent form: they have collected 4 points from five matches, compared with Glentoran’s 3, with both teams winning just one game during that period. The hosts have scored 7 goals recently, clearly more than Glentoran’s 4, indicating greater attacking potential. Both defenses have struggled, but the visitors have conceded as many as 10 goals in their last five appearances, compared with 7 for Ballymena. Glentoran also lost their only away match to date, conceding an average of 2 goals per game, despite maintaining 54% possession and creating chances worth an average of 1.15 xG. The season is still in its very early stages, so a draw remains a realistic outcome, but the visitors’ weaker run and fragile defense shift the forecast toward a Ballymena win.

Ballymena United have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their matches so far, while Glentoran average just 1.0 goal per game, limiting the visitors’ chances of scoring. The hosts are also better organised without the ball, with an average xG conceded of 0.80 compared with Glentoran’s 1.15 xG created. In their last five matches, the visitors scored only 0.8 goals per game and lost three of those five fixtures, while Ballymena recorded BTTS in 60% of their games. However, the hosts’ attack looks very strong: 2.0 goals and 1.72 xG per game, along with an average of 14 shots, against Glentoran’s 2.0 goals conceded. The most likely scenario is therefore that Ballymena score, but at least one team—primarily Glentoran—fails to find the net. This supports the BTTS - No / No Goal selection: it means that at least one team does not score, and does not automatically imply a 0:0 result or that neither team will score.

Ballymena have averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded in their last five matches, while Glentoran have scored 0.8 goals but allowed their opponents as many as 2.0 goals per game. The hosts create more chances, averaging 14 shots and 5 shots on target compared with Glentoran’s 7 shots and 4 on target, while their season xG stands at 1.72. In the last five matches played by both teams, the 2.5-goal line was exceeded in 80% and 60% of cases respectively, supporting a scenario with at least two goals. At the same time, the average xG from their last five matches—1.33 for Ballymena and 1.25 for Glentoran—indicates a combined attacking potential clearly above 2 goals. Over 1.5 is the strongest pick, as both teams have recorded at least two goals in every league match so far, while the projected 2.65 goals gives this line a clear safety margin.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Ballymena win at the final whistle. In the available seasonal data, the hosts were level at the break in 100% of matches, then scored an average of 2.0 goals after half-time without conceding. Glentoran were trailing at half-time in 100% of these observations, while after the break they allowed opponents to score an average of 1.0 goal, favouring a turnaround in Ballymena’s favour. The hosts’ superiority is also evident in the quality of chances: their average xG stands at 1.72 compared with 1.15 for the visitors, while the team averages 14 shots per match against Glentoran’s 7. The last five matches do suggest some caution, as Ballymena were behind at half-time in 60% of cases; however, Glentoran were also trailing at the break in 60%, and the visitors lost 80% of those matches.