Basel vs Thun: match statistics

Thun have a clear attacking edge away from home: they average 3 goals, 20 shots and 7 shots on target per match, while Basel are yet to score at home. The visitors create chances worth an average of 2.06 xG, significantly higher than Basel’s 1.39 xG, and their shot conversion rate stands at 15%. Basel have lost 3 of their last 5 matches and scored just 2 goals during that run, conceding 8, highlighting their lack of consistency in both phases of play. Thun’s defence is also far from convincing, as they allow chances worth 2.04 xG away from home and have yet to keep a clean sheet, giving the hosts a chance to end their scoring drought. Nevertheless, Thun won their only away match so far, and their advantage in both the number and quality of chances created points towards an away victory.

Thun creates significantly more chances, averaging 2.06 xG and 7 shots on target, while Basel allows opponents 2.69 xG per match. However, the hosts have genuine arguments for breaking through, as their recent average xG stands at 1.37, while Thun conceded an average of 2.4 goals across their last five matches. Basel scored just 0.4 goals per game in their last five fixtures, with BTTS occurring in 20% of cases, which represents the main risk to the BTTS - Yes pick. Nevertheless, BTTS landed in 80% of Thun’s last five appearances, compared with a league average of 67% for this market, making the scenario in which Basel also exploits the visitors’ defensive weakness more likely.

The strongest selection is Over 1.5 goals, as both teams recorded matches with at least 2 goals in 100% of cases based on the current league data. Thun clearly offers greater attacking potential: they average 2.06 xG, 20 shots and 7 shots on target per match, while Basel allow opponents 2.69 xG. The last five matches point to a more moderate but still open profile: Thun concede an average of 2.4 goals, while Basel concede 1.6, supporting a forecast of 2.95 total goals. Basel scored only 0.4 goals per match during this run, making the Over 2.5 line riskier than Over 1.5, despite the league averaging 3.5 goals per game. An additional argument is that both teams scored in 80% of Thun's last five matches, increasing the likelihood of quickly surpassing two goals.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Thun win in the match, as Basel were level at the break in 80% of their last five matches and failed to score a single goal before half-time in any of them. Thun averaged 0.8 goals before the break and led after 45 minutes in 40% of their recent matches, while their 40% rate of half-time draws further increases the likelihood of an undecided opening period. Across the full available record, the visitors won 100% of their matches and averaged 3.0 goals, whereas Basel lost every game, scored 0.0 goals and conceded as many as 6.0 per match. Thun's superiority is also evident in their chance creation: their average xG stands at 2.06 compared with 1.15, and they recorded 7 shots on target compared with 3. Therefore, after a more cautious first half, the visitors should turn the result in their favour.