Bayern München vs Köln: match statistics
Bayern München vs Köln: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Bayern München played Köln in Bundesliga (Germany). The match was played on 16 May 2026. Final score: 5:1.
Current form
Bayern München: 4-1-0, 2.60 points/match. Köln: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Bayern München scores 3.55 and concedes 1.06 goals per match. Köln scores 1.45 and concedes 1.76. League average: 3.22 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Bayern München 64%, Köln 79%. Over 2.5: Bayern München 94%, Köln 64%. League level: BTTS 62%, Over 2.5 64%.
xG, shots and style
Bayern München has higher xG: 2.32 vs 1.51. Bayern München: 19.2 shots per match, Köln: 13.6.
Match halves
Bayern München: half-time lead 58%, second-half goals 2.12. Köln: half-time lead 18%, second-half goals 0.91.
Goals by minute
Bayern München: 76-90+ (34 goals). Köln: 76-90+ (19 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Bundesliga: 3.22 goals per match, BTTS 62%, Over 2.5 64%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-0. Average goals 4.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Bayern is the clear favorite based on the statistics: at home they have an 81% win rate this season and have scored 117 goals overall, averaging 3.94 goals per home match. Creation and conversion metrics show a large advantage for the hosts: Bayern averages 2.5 xG per home game versus Köln’s 1.3 xG on the road, and produces 21.69 shots with 9 on target per match, while Köln averages 11.88 shots and 3.88 on target. Defensively Bayern concedes 1.13 goals per home game on average, while Köln concedes 1.75 on away trips; Bayern has 31% clean sheets compared to 13% for Köln, and Köln fails to score in 19% of away matches whereas Bayern has had none at home (0%). In the last 5 matches Bayern scored 13 and conceded 12, averaging 1.6 points per game, while Köln has 8 scored and 9 conceded with 1.0 point per game. Considering the advantage in conversion (18% vs 9%), possession (67% vs 47%) and the home goal difference (+45 vs -10 for Köln away), I predict a home win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Strong signal for BTTS - Yes: Bayern has a seasonal BTTS rate of 88% and Köln 69%, with BTTS in the last 5 matches at 80% (Bayern) and 100% (Köln). Both teams regularly concede — Bayern averages 1.76 goals conceded over the season and 2.4 in the last 5 matches, Köln concedes 1.75 for the season and 1.8 in the last 5 — which increases the likelihood of goals from both sides. Offensive metrics and xG support this: Bayern xG_for 1.71 and an average of 5.59 shots on target, Köln xG_for 1.30 and 3.88 shots on target, with shot conversion rates of 12% vs 9%, favoring goal scoring. Clean sheets are unlikely — home clean sheet rate only 6% and away 13%, and Bayern failed to score in 6% of matches while Köln failed to score in 19%, so the scenario of one team not scoring has a low margin. Based on these combined figures I rate BTTS 85% versus 15% for No Goal, making "BTTS - Yes" the most probable outcome.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Based on xG: Bayern has xG_for 1.71, Köln xG_for 1.30, and after accounting for xG against (Köln 1.69, Bayern 1.36) we obtain expected goals ≈1.70 for Bayern and ≈1.33 for Köln, totaling ~3.03 goals. Seasonal averages confirm an offensive profile: Bayern scores at home on average 1.76 goals (117 goals), Köln away 1.13 goals (48 goals), and both teams have a high share of both-teams-to-score matches — 88% for Bayern and 69% for Köln. A Poisson model for total lambda=3.03 estimates over 1.5 ≈80%, over 2.5 ≈58% and over 3.5 ≈36%. Additionally Bayern averages 15.18 shots (5.59 on target) per match versus Köln 11.88 (3.88 on target), and conversion rates are 12% vs 9%, which increases the likelihood of actual finishes. In summary, the strongest signal is the “over” play at line 1.5 (pick: Over 1.5) due to the highest confidence (~80%) and strong seasonal support: 88% over1.5 for Bayern and 81% over1.5 for Köln.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The most likely scenario is a draw at Half-Time and a Bayern win at Full-Time (X/1): hosts were level at the break in 41% of matches and the visitors in 50%, suggesting roughly a 45% probability of a lead at the break being a draw. Bayern have a clear advantage in the second half — they average 1.12 goals after the break versus Köln’s 0.69, and home second halves yield an average of 2.12 goals compared to 1.69 in Köln’s matches. The offensive edge is confirmed by xG of 1.71 for the home side versus 1.30 for Köln and 5.59 shots on target for Bayern against 3.88 for Köln, which increases the likelihood of a decisive goal after halftime. In the last five fixtures the hosts won the second half in 80% of cases, and seasonally Bayern’s matches see goals after the break in 94% of cases; therefore I assign the highest weight to X/1 (34%), followed by X/X (draw/draw) at 22% and a Bayern Half-Time lead to Full-Time win (1/1) at 14%.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Bayern München | Köln | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 45% | 35% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.42 | 0.30 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Bayern München is 160% better for: last-5 form.
2.6 pts / match - Bayern München · 1 pts / match - Köln
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Bayern München is 145% better for: goals scored per match.
3.55 goals / match - Bayern München · 1.45 goals / match - Köln
Bayern München is 66% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.06 goals / match - Bayern München · 1.76 goals / match - Köln
Bayern München scores in 100% of matches (33 of 33 matches), while Köln keeps a clean sheet in 9% (3 of 33 matches).
Köln scores in 88% of matches (29 of 33 matches), while Bayern München keeps a clean sheet in 36% (12 of 33 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Bayern München
Over / Under - Köln
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Bayern München is 100% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
2 pts / match - Bayern München · 1 pts / match - Köln
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Bayern München - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 58% of matches and wins 82%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Köln - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 18% of matches and wins 21%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 2.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 2.2 | 2.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 0% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +10 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 2.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 0% |
| No goal | 40% | 20% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (34 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (11). Late-goal balance (76-90): +23 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (19 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (14). Late-goal balance (76-90): +8 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Bayern München
Köln
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Bundesliga).
Teams vs league
| Bayern München | Liga | Köln | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 4.61 | 3.22 | • 3.21 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 64% | 62% | ▲ 79% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 94% | 64% | • 64% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 36% | 21% | ▼ 9% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 91% | 77% | ▼ 73% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 97% | 86% | • 85% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Bayern München 1 - 0 - 0 Köln. Average goals 4.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Bayern München vs Köln?
The Bundesliga match finished Bayern München 5:1 Köln. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Bayern München vs Köln?
Bayern München score 3.55 goals per game on average and Köln 1.45. The Bundesliga average is 3.22 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 64% of games. Both teams score in 64% of Bayern München's matches and 79% of Köln's.
What form are Bayern München and Köln in?
Over the last 5 games Bayern München have a 4-1-0 record (2.60 points per game) and Köln 1-2-2 (1.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Bayern München vs Köln?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Bayern München vs Köln: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.