Beijing Guoan vs Sichuan Jiuniu: match statistics

Beijing Guoan remain unbeaten in their last five matches, winning 3 and drawing 2, while Sichuan Jiuniu have suffered 2 defeats over the same period. At home, the hosts average 1.82 goals, create chances worth 1.99 xG and register 18.82 shots per match, clearly outperforming the visitors’ away averages of 0.8 goals, 1.05 xG and 9.1 shots. Sichuan Jiuniu lose as many as 80% of their away matches, concede an average of 2.2 goals on the road and have kept a clean sheet in none of them. The difference in control is also significant: Beijing Guoan average 64% possession at home, compared with the visitors’ 41% away from home. Home advantage, the higher quality of chances created and Sichuan Jiuniu’s very weak defence all point towards a home win.

Beijing Guoan should create very good conditions for scoring, as they average 2.0 goals per match, while Sichuan Jiuniu concede as many as 2.2 goals and have not kept a single clean sheet. The hosts are also in good attacking form: they have scored 9 goals in their last five matches, with an average xG of 1.89. The key unknown is the visitors’ goal, as they score only 0.8 goals per match across the season and failed to score in 50% of their games, although they have also scored 9 goals in their last five matches. Sichuan Jiuniu generated an xG of 1.25 during this period, while Beijing concede an average of 1.36 goals per match, making a goal for the visitors sufficiently realistic. The BTTS - Yes pick is further supported by the fact that 80% of Beijing’s matches featured goals from both teams in their last five league fixtures, although the visitors’ weaker finishing limits the strength of this selection.

Beijing Guoan score an average of 2.0 goals per match, while Sichuan Jiuniu concede as many as 2.2, with the visitors recording a clean sheet in 0% of their matches. The hosts also create significantly more chances, averaging 14.18 shots and 4.73 on target, compared with 9.1 and 3.4 for their opponents. Over the last five matches, both teams have averaged 1.8 goals scored per game, while Beijing’s average xG during this period stands at 1.89, compared with 1.54 xG conceded by Sichuan. At least two goals were scored in 73% of the hosts’ matches and 80% of the visitors’ games, strongly supporting the Over 1.5 goals option. The Over 1.5 line carries the highest probability, while Over 2.5 remains more evenly balanced due to Sichuan’s low season average of just 0.8 goals scored.

Beijing Guoan have a clear seasonal edge: they win 55% of their matches and score an average of 2.0 goals, while Sichuan Jiuniu lose 80% of their games, score only 0.8 goals, and concede 2.2. The hosts led at the break in 36% of matches, compared with just 10% for the visitors, while Sichuan went into half-time trailing in as many as 40% of cases. In the opening 45 minutes, Beijing concede an average of 0.55 goals, whereas their opponents concede 1.0, and the visitors have also conceded 6 goals between the 31st and 45th minutes. The quality of chances also favours the hosts, whose average xG stands at 1.50 compared with Sichuan’s 1.05, while shots on target are 4.73 to 3.40. The most likely outcome is therefore Beijing leading at the break and maintaining their winning advantage, although a draw at half-time remains a significant alternative, as the hosts were level at the break in 36% of their matches.