Beijing Guoan vs Yunnan Yukun: match statistics

Beijing Guoan come into this match after a run of 4 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 games, scoring 14 goals during that period, while Yunnan Yukun have won 3 times and conceded as many as 10 goals. At home, the hosts average 2.00 goals with an xG of 1.95, while away from home the visitors allow opponents an xG of 1.62 and concede an average of 2.09 goals. Beijing’s advantage is also evident in match control: their average possession stands at 63% compared with Yunnan’s 49%, while they register 18.42 shots per game versus 14.36. Yunnan have a respectable conversion rate of 13% and score 1.82 goals per away match, but they have won only 27% of such fixtures and kept a clean sheet in just 9% of them. More solid recent form, greater quality in chance creation and a clearly weaker visiting defence all point towards a Beijing Guoan victory.

The strongest signal in favour of BTTS - Yes is that 91% of Yunnan Yukun matches have featured goals from both sides, well above the league average of 64%, compared with 67% for Beijing Guoan. Both teams are highly consistent in attack: Beijing score an average of 2.17 goals per match, while Yunnan average 1.82, and they have failed to score in only 8% and 9% of matches, respectively. The visitors’ defensive profile particularly favours a home goal, as Yunnan concede an average of 2.09 goals and keep a clean sheet in just 9% of matches. Current form also supports a Goal/Goal scenario: in their last five matches, both teams recorded BTTS in 80% of games, scoring an average of 2.8 and 2.6 goals, respectively. Beijing have the stronger defence, but their recent xG against stands at 1.41, while Yunnan have recently produced 1.77 xG, giving the visitors credible grounds to score. BTTS - No would mean that at least one team fails to score; it does not automatically imply a 0:0 draw or that neither team will score.

Beijing Guoan score an average of 2.17 goals per match, while Yunnan Yukun concede as many as 2.09, clearly strengthening the hosts’ attacking potential. The visitors average 1.82 goals scored, while the hosts concede 1.58, and both teams record high xG figures: 1.81 and 1.53, respectively. In their last five matches, Beijing scored 14 goals and Yunnan 13, while Over 2.5 goals landed in 100% of the hosts’ matches and 80% of the visitors’ matches. The 1.5 line was surpassed in 83% of Beijing’s matches and 91% of Yunnan’s, compared with a league average of 3.08 goals. The strongest pick is Over 1.5, as the profile of both teams significantly limits the risk of a match finishing with no more than one goal.

Beijing Guoan has a more pronounced home profile: they win 58% of their matches, while Yunnan Yukun lose 55%, and the hosts average 2.17 goals per match compared with the 2.09 goals conceded on average by the visitors. The quality-of-chances advantage also lies with Beijing, whose average xG stands at 1.81 versus the 1.62 xG allowed by Yunnan. In their last five matches, Beijing have won four times and have not lost once, leading at the break in three games while conceding just 0.2 goals per match before half-time. After the interval, the hosts score an average of 1.25 goals, while Yunnan concede as many as 1.09 in this period, with the visitors winning just 9% of second halves compared with Beijing’s 50%. The visitors are nevertheless dangerous in attack, averaging 1.82 goals and recording both teams to score in 91% of their matches, which increases the likelihood of a draw or a turnaround. However, the most likely outcome remains Beijing leading at half-time and securing the full-time victory.