Benfica II vs CS Marítimo: match statistics

CS Marítimo is the favorite for this match: they sit 1st in the table with 18 wins this season, while Benfica II are 8th with 10 wins. The visitors show a markedly superior defense — they concede only 0.67 goals per away game versus 1.2 conceded by Benfica II at home, and in the last 5 matches Marítimo conceded 2 goals compared to 7 conceded by the hosts; additionally Marítimo keep clean sheets in 53% of away matches versus Benfica’s 33%. Benfica II generate more chances (on average 16.73 shots and 6 on target at home, xG 1.93) but convert them less efficiently — 1.6 goals per game with shot conversion around 10%, whereas Marítimo score 1.73 goals away with a 14% conversion rate and xG 1.43. In last five fixtures the visitors average 2.0 points per game (3W, 1D, 1L), while Benfica average 1.4 points (2W, 1D, 2L), which further favors the visitors. Due to a higher away win percentage (67% vs 47%), better offensive efficiency and defensive stability, I predict a Marítimo victory.

I forecast no BTTS (No) with 65% probability vs 35% for Yes, because the data indicate a defensive edge for Marítimo. Marítimo keep a CS on average conceding only 0.67 goals per match and have 53% of games as clean sheets; in the last 5 matches they conceded a total of 2 goals (0.4 per match) and had BTTS in only 20% of cases. Benfica II generate higher xG (1.75) and more shots (avg 14.8, including 5.2 on target), but their conversion rate is only 8% and in the last 5 matches they scored an average of 1.0 goal while conceding 1.4, showing limited ability to reliably convert chances. Season BTTS rates are 47% for Benfica II and 33% for Marítimo, while the league has as many as 63% of matches with a clean sheet and an average goals of 2.46, which further favors low-scoring outcomes and supports the No selection.

xG analysis gives 1.55 expected goals for Benfica II (xG for 1.75 vs xG allowed by Marítimo 1.34) and 1.25 for CS Marítimo (xG for 1.43 vs xG allowed by Benfica II 1.08), totaling 2.80 expected goals. Using a Poisson distribution at this sum yields approximately a 77% probability for Over 1.5, about 53% for Over 2.5 and around 31% for Over 3.5. Additionally, Benfica II averages 14.8 shots and 5.2 on target, while Marítimo averages 12.27 and 4.27; although the home side have a lower shot conversion rate (8% vs 14%), the visitors are more clinical, which increases goal likelihood. Season-long indicators show lower Over 2.5 rates (27% for Benfica II and 40% for Marítimo) and clean sheets of 40%/53%, but Benfica’s last 5 matches have 60% Over 2.5 (Marítimo 20%), so I combine the xG signal with recent form. As a result, the strongest and most reliable signal from the data is the over at the 1.5 line (recommendation: Over 1.5).

I back a Half-Time draw and a Full-Time away win (X/2). The visitors win 67% of their matches this season and average 1.73 goals per game versus the hosts’ 1.2, with a shot conversion rate of 14% compared to 8% for Benfica II; given xG of 1.43 (visitors) versus 1.75 (hosts), this points to greater finishing efficiency from Marítimo. A draw at the break looks likely: the hosts kept a clean sheet at half-time in 80% of matches, and in the last five fixtures the visitors were level at half-time in 80% of cases. In the second half the visitors’ edge is pronounced — Marítimo scores on average 1.0 goals after the break and concedes only 0.27, and their average points after half-time are 2.07 versus 1.53 for the hosts, which favors a turnaround after the break. For these reasons I assign a 40% probability to the X/2 scenario, 20% to a draw after 90 minutes, and 15% to the visitors leading at half-time and holding the lead.