Benfica II vs Leixões: match statistics

Leixões are showing significantly better current form: they have won 4 of their last 5 matches and collected 12 points in the process, while Benfica II have recorded just 2 victories and 6 points. The visitors scored 11 goals during this period, averaging 2.2 per match, compared with Benfica II’s mere 4 goals, clearly indicating greater attacking efficiency. Leixões’ defensive record is also more convincing, having conceded 5 goals in five matches, while the hosts have allowed 7. Benfica II have lost 3 of their last 5 matches, and a run featuring three defeats suggests greater inconsistency. The lack of complete season data limits the significance of home advantage, so the current trend and the clearly superior goal difference support an away win.

The stronger signal points to BTTS - No, primarily due to Benfica II’s limited attacking efficiency: they have scored only 4 goals in their last five matches, averaging 0.8 per game. Both teams scored in just 40% of the hosts’ matches during this period, while Leixões recorded this scenario in 60% of their appearances. Leixões are in very good attacking form, scoring an average of 2.2 goals per match and winning 4 of their last 5 games, but their defence concedes only 1.0 goal and 1.04 xG on average. Benfica II create an average of 1.33 xG, but converting this into just 0.8 goals scored suggests a real risk that the hosts will fail to score, giving the edge to the BTTS - No scenario.

The available data from the last five matches indicates an attacking advantage for Leixões, who scored 11 goals, or 2.2 per match, while Benfica II scored only 4, averaging 0.8. At the same time, the hosts conceded 7 goals during this period, compared with 5 for the visitors, pointing to a moderately open, but not exceptionally high-scoring, match profile. The teams’ average xG figures are 1.33 and 1.54, while their xG conceded stands at 1.13 and 1.04 respectively, supporting a forecast of approximately 2.60 total goals. Leixões had Over 2.5 goals in 80% of their last five matches, but Benfica II did so in only 40%, which is why a four-goal or higher outcome is not the base-case scenario. The strongest option is Under 3.5: the expected total of 2.60 goals provides a clear safety margin below this line.

Leixões have won 4 of their last 5 matches and scored an average of 2.2 goals per game, while Benfica II suffered 3 defeats and managed just 0.8 goals on average. The visitors’ advantage is particularly evident before half-time: they averaged 1.2 goals in the first half, whereas the hosts failed to score in the first half of any of their last five matches. Benfica II were trailing at the break in 50% of those games, while Leixões were leading after 45 minutes in 40% of their matches and had a positive first-half goal difference of 3:0. After the break, the visitors continue to score an average of 1.0 goals, and their strong finishing form, reflected in an 80% win rate over their last five matches, further supports the HT/FT scenario of Leixões leading at half-time and winning the match (1/1).