Benfica II vs Portimonense: match statistics

Portimonense are showing clearly better current form: they have won 4 of their last five matches, drawn once and scored 8 goals, while Benfica II have a record of 3 wins, 2 defeats and 5 goals. The visitors are also higher in the table, sitting 3rd compared with the hosts in 6th. Both teams won their only previous match in the respective home/away role 1:0 and kept a clean sheet, but Portimonense create slightly more chances away from home, averaging 10 shots compared with Benfica II’s 9, while their xG stands at 1.06 versus 0.97. Particularly significant is that Benfica II allow opponents an xG of 2.38, considerably higher than the 1.73 recorded by Portimonense, indicating greater defensive risk for the hosts. The match could be closely contested and low-scoring, but the visitors’ more stable run of results points to a narrow victory.

The strongest signal is the absence of matches with both teams scoring so far: both Benfica II and Portimonense have a BTTS rate of 0%, while both teams have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their matches. Liga Portugal LigaPro also favors this scenario, with BTTS occurring in only 35% of matches and an average of 2.0 goals per game. Benfica II does create more, with an average xG of 1.63 and 4.0 shots on target, but Portimonense have limited attacking potential: 1.06 xG, 1.0 goal on average, and 2.0 shots on target. The last five matches present a more mixed picture, as both teams recorded BTTS in 40% of their games, but Portimonense conceded only 0.6 goals per match during that period, strengthening the likelihood that at least one side will fail to score. The BTTS - Yes pick is not more likely, as the season-long defensive data and the league’s low percentage of matches with goals from both teams outweigh the moderate signals from recent form.

The league profile is clearly low-scoring: it averages 2.0 goals per match, with only 35% of games going Over 2.5. In their last five matches, Benfica II averaged 1.0 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, while Portimonense scored 1.6 and allowed opponents 0.6 goals. The combined xG from both teams’ last five outings, standing at 1.33 and 1.30 in attack, points to a match more likely to finish around two goals than develop into an open, high-scoring game. In addition, only 40% of Benfica II’s and 20% of Portimonense’s recent matches featured at least three goals. Under 3.5 offers the strongest edge, as even a more clinical performance from one team would still be constrained by the defensive data and the league profile, which significantly limit the likelihood of four or more goals.

Portimonense are showing clearly superior current form: over their last five matches, they have averaged 1.6 goals scored, 0.6 conceded, and an 80% win rate, whereas Benfica II have averaged 1.0 goal scored and 1.2 conceded per match. The visitors were not trailing at half-time in any of those games, and as many as 60% ended with the teams level at the break; Benfica II were level after 45 minutes in 50% of their matches and trailing in 25%. After the break, the hosts scored just 0.25 goals on average, compared with 0.6 for Portimonense, who also kept a clean sheet in the second half in 100% of their recent matches. Furthermore, Benfica II’s season-long advantage in the quality of chances created—an xG of 1.63 versus 1.06—is less reliable given the very small sample, while the current run of form strongly favours the visitors. The most likely scenario is therefore an even first half, followed by a Portimonense win after the break.