Benfica II vs União de Leiria: match statistics

Benfica II are the favorites based on home metrics: at their stadium they average 1.57 goals per game, 16.93 shots per match of which 5.86 are on target, and have average xG 1.93 versus xG conceded 1.17. União de Leiria have a higher finishing rate (13% vs 9%) and have scored 9 goals in their last 5 matches versus 7 by the hosts, but their away xG average is only 1.38 with xG against 1.58, which indicates lower quality of created chances and greater defensive vulnerability. Additionally Benfica II rarely finish home games goalless (FTS 7% vs 29% for visitors) and have a higher clean sheet rate (36% vs 21%), supporting the hosts’ offensive and defensive stability. Both sides average 2 points per game over the last 5 fixtures, so form is similar, but the advantage in possession (57% vs 51%) and higher shot volume (16.93 vs 11.79) tilt probability toward Benfica II. On that basis I recommend backing the home win.

Seasonal indicators favor BTTS: Benfica II has BTTS at 64% and União de Leiria 57%, averaging 60.5% versus the league 47%, meaning both teams frequently both score and concede over the season. xG values corroborate this: Benfica II xG for 1.59 vs xG against União 1.58, while União xG for 1.38 vs xG against Benfica II 1.26 — both sides generate roughly 1.3–1.6 xG per match. However, in the last 5 matches both teams have BTTS only 40% and concede on average 0.6 goals each, which short-term weakens the both-teams-to-score signal. Benfica II averages 5.07 shots on target and 13.5 shots per game with a conversion rate of 12%, and União 4.21 on target and 11.79 shots with a 13% conversion, confirming genuine chances from both sides. In summary, considering the seasonal 64% vs 57%, xG profiles and shot statistics, I assess BTTS as more likely: 62% for YES and 38% for NO.

xG and stats analysis shows Benfica II has xG 1.59 and averages 1.57 goals scored, while União de Leiria has xG 1.38 and averages 1.50 goals scored; their opponents concede on average 1.26 (Benfica) and 1.58 (Leiria), yielding expected goals of 1.59 for the home side and 1.32 for the away side (total 2.91). With a total of 2.91 the Poisson distribution gives roughly a 79% chance of Over 1.5 goals, about 56% for Over 2.5 and around 33% for Over 3.5. Seasonal rates confirm the direction: both teams have 71% of matches with at least 2 goals, Benfica at home has 64% of matches Over 2.5, and BTTS rates are 64% for the home team and 57% for the visitors, supporting a goals scenario. In the last 5 matches Benfica scored 7 goals (1.4 avg), Leiria 9 goals (1.8 avg), with 3 goals conceded by each side, so recent form also favors overs; the strongest signal from the data is thus Over 1.5.

I back 1/1 (Benfica II leading at Half-Time and winning) because the hosts have the edge in first-half metrics: Benfica II led at the break in 43% of matches, scores on average 0.79 goals by Half-Time versus União de Leiria’s 0.57, and first-half goals average 1.36 compared to 1.07. The hosts also create more high-quality chances — xG 1.59 versus the visitors’ 1.38 — and 5.07 shots on target versus 4.21 — while the visitors’ defense concedes on average 1.58 xG per match compared to 1.26 for Benfica II. União de Leiria is, however, dangerous after the break: they have scored 7 goals in minutes 76–90 and average 1.64 points in second halves versus the hosts’ 1.43, which increases the likelihood of a turnaround. Assuming that a host lead at the break (43%) translates into a win in roughly 70% of those cases, the 1/1 scenario obtains the highest probability (~30%), while alternatives X/1 (14%) and X/X (11%) are less likely. Additionally, both teams register high percentages of matches with goals from both sides — 64% for the hosts and 57% for the visitors — so I also assign moderate chances to outcomes featuring goals after Half-Time.