Benjamin Aceval vs 12 de Junio VH: match statistics

12 de Junio VH are 2nd in the standings and have the better overall season record: 13 wins and only 4 defeats, compared with Benjamin Aceval’s 11 wins and 5 losses. Away from home, the visitors are particularly solid, winning 70% of their matches, conceding an average of just 0.5 goals and keeping a clean sheet in 50% of their outings. Benjamin Aceval do score 1.4 goals per home game with an xG of 1.57, but their defence allows opponents an xG of 1.54, which could prove problematic against the more clinical visitors. 12 de Junio VH average 4.5 shots on target away from home compared with the hosts’ 4.22, have a higher finishing efficiency, 13% to 11%, and fail to score in only 10% of their away fixtures. Both teams have scored 8 goals across their last five matches, but the visitors conceded 8 goals during that period, compared with 9 for the hosts, further providing slight support for the away-win tip.

The BTTS signal is primarily supported by current form: Benjamin Aceval have seen both teams score in 80% of their last 5 matches, while 12 de Junio VH have recorded BTTS in 60%. During this period, both teams averaged 1.6 goals scored, while conceding 1.8 and 1.6 goals respectively, clearly increasing the chances of goals at both ends. The hosts create an average of 1.66 xG, while the visitors produce 1.38 xG, with 4.7 and 4.5 shots on target per match respectively, meaning both attacks have genuine scoring potential. The risk to the pick is the visitors’ defence, which has conceded just 0.50 goals per match throughout the season and kept a clean sheet in 50% of matches, while their season BTTS rate is only 40%. Despite this, both teams’ recent defensive results have been weaker than their season averages, so the scenario in which each team scores is marginally more likely.

The strongest signal is Under 3.5 goals, as 12 de Junio VH finished below this line in 90% of their league matches, compared with 64% for Benjamin Aceval. The visitors concede just 0.50 goals per game and keep a clean sheet in 50% of their appearances, which clearly limits the hosts’ attacking potential despite their average of 1.55 goals scored. The xG comparison points to a moderately paced rather than extremely open game: the hosts create an average of 1.66 xG while their opponents concede 0.96 xG, whereas the visitors record 1.38 xG against the hosts’ 1.16. The last five matches were more high-scoring, with both teams scoring 8 goals and conceding 9 and 8 respectively, which is why Over 1.5 goals remains probable at 70%. At the same time, neither side averages even 2 goals per game, and the projected total of 2.52 goals gives a clear edge to Under 3.5.

The most likely HT/FT outcome is a draw at half-time followed by a win for 12 de Junio VH, as Benjamin Aceval were level at the break in 70% of their matches, compared with 50% for the visitors. The away side have a clearly superior full-season record: they win 70% of their matches and average 2.30 points, compared with the hosts’ 55% win rate and 1.82 points per game. The visitors’ defensive record is also crucial: they concede just 0.50 goals per match, keep a clean sheet in 50% of their games, and have yet to concede in the first halves. Benjamin Aceval have conceded an average of 1.8 goals over their last five matches, including as many as 1.4 after half-time, increasing the likelihood that an evenly balanced opening will turn in the visitors’ favour. The away side have scored 6 of their 7 goals before half-time, between the 31st and 45th minutes, but their defensive stability provides the strongest support for a draw at the break and a win by the final whistle.