BFC Daugavpils vs Liepāja: match statistics
BFC Daugavpils vs Liepāja: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
BFC Daugavpils played Liepāja in Virsliga (Latvia). The match was played on 4 July 2026. Final score: 3:1.
Current form
BFC Daugavpils: 1-3-1, 1.20 points/match. Liepāja: 2-0-3, 1.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
BFC Daugavpils scores 1.05 and concedes 1.33 goals per match. Liepāja scores 1.29 and concedes 1.48. League average: 2.98 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: BFC Daugavpils 57%, Liepāja 52%. Over 2.5: BFC Daugavpils 38%, Liepāja 57%. League level: BTTS 56%, Over 2.5 55%.
xG, shots and style
BFC Daugavpils has higher xG: 1.52 vs 1.48. BFC Daugavpils: 12.8 shots per match, Liepāja: 12.3.
Match halves
BFC Daugavpils: half-time lead 19%, second-half goals 0.71. Liepāja: half-time lead 38%, second-half goals 0.67.
Goals by minute
BFC Daugavpils: 46-60 (10 goals). Liepāja: 31-45+ (7 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Virsliga: 2.98 goals per match, BTTS 56%, Over 2.5 55%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 6 previous H2H matches were available: 2-1-3. Average goals 3.17, BTTS 83%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I back a BFC Daugavpils win (1) based on a clear home defensive advantage: the hosts concede just 0.75 goals per home game on average and have 42% clean sheets, while Liepāja concedes 2.0 goals per away match and records only 10% clean sheets. This season BFC scored 22 goals versus Liepāja’s 27, but in the last 5 matches the visitors scored 6 and conceded 8, whereas the hosts scored 3 and conceded 4 — indicating Liepāja is more dangerous offensively in the short term but more vulnerable at the back. Chance creation quality is balanced by xG (1.53 xG for the hosts at home vs 1.54 xG for the visitors away), however BFC register more on-target shots at home (4.58 on-target shots per match vs 3.4 for Liepāja) and have a higher shot conversion rate (7% vs 5%), which favors capitalizing on chances. Both teams average 1.2 points per game over the last 5 matches, so form is similar, but the clear defensive edge for the hosts and better home conversion of chances gives them a tangible advantage. Therefore I rate the hosts’ win probability as dominant, with a moderate chance of a draw and a lower probability of an away win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I recommend 'No' (Both Teams To Score - No) as the more likely outcome in this match. The home team averages 1.82 goals this season and fails to score in 18% of matches (i.e., scores in ~82%), while the visitors average 0.70 goals and finish 50% of their matches without a goal, which significantly lowers the probability of a Goal/Goal. Season-long BTTS rates are 64% for BFC and 40% for Liepāja, but over the last 5 matches these values have dropped to 40% and 20%, indicating a trend reducing BTTS. xG is similar (xG 1.42 home vs 1.54 away), yet the visitors have a very low shot conversion of 5% and average 3.4 shots on target versus 5.0 for the hosts, so although chances are created, the visitors rarely convert them. Using a simple probability estimate by multiplying scoring probabilities (home ~82% × away ~50% ≈ 41%), I assign BTTS ~41% and No BTTS ~59%, hence the 'No' selection.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The xG model and league context point to a high-scoring match: the league averages 2.98 goals per game, and my calculated expected xG is 1.47 for the home side (xG_for_home 1.42 vs xG_against_away 1.52) and 1.49 for the away side (xG_for_away 1.54 vs xG_against_home 1.43), totaling 2.96 goals. BFC Daugavpils scores 1.82 goals per game on average and has a season rate of matches over 1.5 goals of 91%, while Liepāja averages 0.70 goals and has over 1.5 in 70% of matches — this provides a strong signal for Over 1.5. At the 2.5 line there is a moderately strong signal: home teams have Over 2.5 in 64% of matches, the away side in 50%, and the league at 54%, so I estimate roughly a 62% chance of Over 2.5 with a combined xG ~2.96. Over 3.5 looks much less likely: homes have 18% of matches above 3.5, aways 40%, translating to about a 28% probability of Over 3.5, and the away side’s low finishing rate (conversion 5% vs 16% for the home team) limits the potential for many goals. The strongest and safest pick is Over 1.5 (bet: Over, line: 1.5) given the 91% and 70% Over 1.5 rates and the combined expected 2.96 goals.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Statistics favor the hosts: BFC Daugavpils led at the break in 7 matches (64% of appearances) and scores an average of 1.0 goals by half-time, while Liepāja has 0.2 goals at the break and concedes 1.2 goals before the interval on average. Over the season the hosts win 55% of matches with an average of 1.82 goals per game, whereas the visitors have only 20% wins and 0.7 goals per game, giving BFC the advantage for the Full-Time result. Despite similar xG (1.42 for the hosts vs 1.54 for the guests), the hosts are much more efficient in finishing chances (conversion rate 16% vs 5%) and register more shots on target (5.0 vs 3.4), which translates into a higher actual goal output. The hosts add on average 0.82 goals in the second half versus 0.5 for their opponents, so when leading 1:0 at the break they have a high probability of maintaining and extending the lead. On this basis the most reliable signal is HT/FT 1/1, which I estimate at 48% with the remaining scenarios distributed according to observed HT and FT distributions.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| BFC Daugavpils | Liepāja | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 36% | 34% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Liepāja is 23% better for: goals scored per match.
1.05 goals / match - BFC Daugavpils · 1.29 goals / match - Liepāja
BFC Daugavpils is 11% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.33 goals / match - BFC Daugavpils · 1.48 goals / match - Liepāja
BFC Daugavpils scores in 71% of matches (15 of 21 matches), while Liepāja keeps a clean sheet in 14% (3 of 21 matches).
Liepāja scores in 67% of matches (14 of 21 matches), while BFC Daugavpils keeps a clean sheet in 24% (5 of 21 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - BFC Daugavpils
Over / Under - Liepāja
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Liepāja is 13% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.14 pts / match - BFC Daugavpils · 1.29 pts / match - Liepāja
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
BFC Daugavpils - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 19% of matches and wins 29%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.7 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Liepāja - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 38% of matches and wins 38%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.0 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 0.2 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 20% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 100% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -1 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 60% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 80% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (10 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): -5 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (7 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
BFC Daugavpils
Liepāja
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Virsliga).
Teams vs league
| BFC Daugavpils | Liga | Liepāja | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.38 | 2.98 | ▼ 2.76 |
| Both teams scored | • 57% | 56% | ▼ 52% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 38% | 55% | ▲ 57% |
| Clean sheets | • 24% | 24% | ▼ 14% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 48% | 76% | ▲ 86% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 86% | 84% | ▲ 86% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (6): BFC Daugavpils 2 - 1 - 3 Liepāja. Average goals 3.17, both teams scored in 83% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of BFC Daugavpils vs Liepāja?
The Virsliga match finished BFC Daugavpils 3:1 Liepāja. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between BFC Daugavpils and Liepāja?
In the last 6 head-to-head matches BFC Daugavpils won 2, Liepāja won 3 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 3.17 goals, with both teams scoring in 83% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before BFC Daugavpils vs Liepāja?
BFC Daugavpils score 1.05 goals per game on average and Liepāja 1.29. The Virsliga average is 2.98 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 55% of games. Both teams score in 57% of BFC Daugavpils's matches and 52% of Liepāja's.
What form are BFC Daugavpils and Liepāja in?
Over the last 5 games BFC Daugavpils have a 1-3-1 record (1.20 points per game) and Liepāja 2-0-3 (1.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for BFC Daugavpils vs Liepāja?
The statistical background for BFC Daugavpils vs Liepāja — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.