BFC Daugavpils vs Ogre United: match statistics
BFC Daugavpils vs Ogre United: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
BFC Daugavpils played Ogre United in Virsliga (Latvia). The match was played on 21 May 2026. Final score: 3:1.
Current form
BFC Daugavpils: 0-1-4, 0.20 points/match. Ogre United: 0-0-5, 0.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
BFC Daugavpils scores 1.15 and concedes 1.62 goals per match. Ogre United scores 0.85 and concedes 2.46. League average: 3.07 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: BFC Daugavpils 62%, Ogre United 69%. Over 2.5: BFC Daugavpils 46%, Ogre United 54%. League level: BTTS 60%, Over 2.5 55%.
xG, shots and style
BFC Daugavpils has higher xG: 1.40 vs 1.00. BFC Daugavpils: 11.2 shots per match, Ogre United: 8.7.
Match halves
BFC Daugavpils: half-time lead 23%, second-half goals 0.77. Ogre United: half-time lead 8%, second-half goals 0.54.
Goals by minute
BFC Daugavpils: 46-60 (8 goals). Ogre United: 46-60 (4 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Virsliga: 3.07 goals per match, BTTS 60%, Over 2.5 55%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-0. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
BFC Daugavpils holds a statistical advantage: at home they score on average 0.86 goals and concede 1.00, while Ogre United away score only 0.67 and concede 3.50. The hosts create significantly more chances (avg. 11.71 shots and 4.57 on target at home) versus 7.5 shots and 2.67 on target for the visitors, and xG is 1.47 for BFC compared to 0.94 for Ogre. Form for both teams is poor: BFC have scored 3 goals in their last 5 matches, have no wins and average 0.2 points per game, whereas Ogre have scored 6 goals but lost all 5 and conceded as many as 18. Additionally, the visitors have a 100% away loss rate, 0% clean sheets and an away goal difference of -17, while the hosts have 29% clean sheets at home despite a home goal difference of -1. Based on this, I predict a home win; estimated probabilities are BFC win 70%, draw 15% and Ogre win 15%.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Both teams display high season BTTS rates: BFC Daugavpils 71% and Ogre United 67%, with the last 5 matches at 60% and 80% respectively, indicating a persistent tendency for both sides to score. Defensively both teams are weak — hosts concede 1.57 goals per game (21 conceded this season), visitors 3.5 goals per game (32 conceded); in the last 5 matches the averages are 1.6 and 3.6. xG and shot metrics confirm chances from both sides: xG against 1.83 (hosts) and 2.11 (visitors), xG for 1.05 and 0.94, and shots on target 2.0 vs 2.67. No clean sheets this season (0% for both teams) and a league BTTS of 60% plus a high away over 2.5 goals rate (83%) increase the likelihood of both teams scoring. Therefore I assign 80% to BTTS = Yes and 20% to No, because the combination of 71%/67% season BTTS, 0% clean sheets and high average goals conceded (1.57 and 3.5) creates a strong signal for Goal/Goal.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
I expect approximately 2.97 goals in total, split as 1.58 for BFC Daugavpils and 1.39 for Ogre United (calculated as the average of home xG attack and away xG defense: 1.05 vs 2.11 for the hosts; 0.94 vs 1.83 for the visitors). Ogre United have a weak defense — they concede on average 3.5 goals per game this season, and have conceded 18 goals in their last 5 matches (3.6 per game), which pushes up the expected goals. Both teams show a high percentage of BTTS matches: hosts 71% and visitors 67%, and the league averages 3.08 goals per game, which supports a higher goal count. Using a Poisson distribution for a total of 2.97 goals, the probability of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5) is about 80%, at least 3 goals (Over 2.5) about 57%, and at least 4 goals (Over 3.5) about 35%. The strongest signal in the data is Over 1.5 (probability ~80%), therefore I recommend backing the over at the 1.5 line.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The strongest signal favors the home side: Ogre United have lost 100% of their matches this season (losePercentage_away = 100.0) and concede on average 3.5 goals per match (seasonConcededAVG_away = 3.5) versus 1.57 for BFC Daugavpils (seasonConcededAVG_home = 1.57), which heavily favors a home victory. At half-time the away team practically never leads (leadingAtHTPercentage_away = 0%), are trailing at the break in 83% of matches (trailingAtHTPercentage_away = 83%), while the home side lead at half-time in 14% and are level in 43% (leadingAtHTPercentage_home = 14.0, drawingAtHTPercentage_home = 43.0); thus the strongest HT signal is a lead for the home team. The second half typically yields goals: in matches of both teams there is at least one goal after the break in 100% of cases (over05_2hg_percentage_home = 100%, over05_2hg_percentage_away = 100%), and the away side concedes on average 2.0 goals after half-time (conceded_2hg_avg_away = 2.0), increasing the likelihood that the outcome will swing in favor of the home team post-break. Additionally, both sides have a high percentage of BTTS matches (seasonBTTSPercentage_home = 71%, seasonBTTSPercentage_away = 67%), and the home team has better half-time performance and superior xG (HT points 6 vs 1, HTPoints_home = 6, HTPoints_away = 1; home xG = 1.05 vs away xG = 0.94), therefore the strongest pick is the home leading at half-time and holding the win until full-time (1/1).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| BFC Daugavpils | Ogre United | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 39% | 27% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.26 | 0.37 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
BFC Daugavpils is 35% better for: goals scored per match.
1.15 goals / match - BFC Daugavpils · 0.85 goals / match - Ogre United
BFC Daugavpils is 52% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.62 goals / match - BFC Daugavpils · 2.46 goals / match - Ogre United
BFC Daugavpils scores in 77% of matches (10 of 13 matches), while Ogre United keeps a clean sheet in 0% (0 of 13 matches).
Ogre United scores in 69% of matches (9 of 13 matches), while BFC Daugavpils keeps a clean sheet in 15% (2 of 13 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - BFC Daugavpils
Over / Under - Ogre United
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
BFC Daugavpils is 113% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.15 pts / match - BFC Daugavpils · 0.54 pts / match - Ogre United
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
BFC Daugavpils - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 23% of matches and wins 31%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.7 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Ogre United - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 8% of matches and wins 0%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.0 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 20% |
| No goal | 100% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -3 | -2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.4 | 2.2 |
| Average goals in match | 2.2 | 2.6 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 0% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -3 | -9 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (8 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): -5 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (4 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): -9 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
BFC Daugavpils
Ogre United
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Virsliga).
Teams vs league
| BFC Daugavpils | Liga | Ogre United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.77 | 3.07 | ▲ 3.31 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 62% | 60% | ▲ 69% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 46% | 55% | • 54% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 15% | 21% | ▼ 0% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 62% | 76% | ▼ 69% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 92% | 87% | ▲ 100% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: BFC Daugavpils 1 - 0 - 0 Ogre United. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of BFC Daugavpils vs Ogre United?
The Virsliga match finished BFC Daugavpils 3:1 Ogre United. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before BFC Daugavpils vs Ogre United?
BFC Daugavpils score 1.15 goals per game on average and Ogre United 0.85. The Virsliga average is 3.07 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 55% of games. Both teams score in 62% of BFC Daugavpils's matches and 69% of Ogre United's.
What form are BFC Daugavpils and Ogre United in?
Over the last 5 games BFC Daugavpils have a 0-1-4 record (0.20 points per game) and Ogre United 0-0-5 (0.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for BFC Daugavpils vs Ogre United?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.