BFC Daugavpils vs Rīgas FS: match statistics
BFC Daugavpils vs Rīgas FS: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
BFC Daugavpils played Rīgas FS in Virsliga (Latvia). The match was played on 13 May 2026. Final score: 0:1.
Current form
BFC Daugavpils: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match. Rīgas FS: 4-1-0, 2.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
BFC Daugavpils scores 1.27 and concedes 1.64 goals per match. Rīgas FS scores 2.27 and concedes 0.82. League average: 3.03 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: BFC Daugavpils 64%, Rīgas FS 36%. Over 2.5: BFC Daugavpils 45%, Rīgas FS 45%. League level: BTTS 59%, Over 2.5 53%.
xG, shots and style
Rīgas FS has higher xG: 2.01 vs 1.45. BFC Daugavpils: 12.0 shots per match, Rīgas FS: 17.3.
Match halves
BFC Daugavpils: half-time lead 27%, second-half goals 0.82. Rīgas FS: half-time lead 45%, second-half goals 1.27.
Goals by minute
BFC Daugavpils: 46-60 (7 goals). Rīgas FS: 46-60 (5 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Virsliga: 3.03 goals per match, BTTS 59%, Over 2.5 53%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 5 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-5. Average goals 5.60, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I forecast an away win for Rīgas FS based on a clear numerical advantage. Rīgas FS have scored 25 goals this season versus BFC Daugavpils' 14, and in the last 5 matches the visitors have netted 15 goals compared to the hosts' 4. The visitors create more chances — away xG is 2.14 versus home xG 1.57; they average 18.4 shots per game (6.4 on target) versus 12.5 (4.83 on target) and have a higher conversion rate 10% vs 8%. Defensively Rīgas FS concede 0.8 goals away, have xG against 0.66 and 60% clean sheets, while the hosts concede 1.0 goals at home, have xG against 1.31 and 33% clean sheets. Additionally the visitors average 2.6 points per game over the last 5 matches (form: wwdww), and the hosts only 1.0 point (form: wdldl), therefore I assess the probabilities as: Rīgas FS 70%, draw 15%, home win 15%.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I back 'No' — it is more likely that both teams will not score in this match. Seasonal BTTS rates are low: 33% for BFC Daugavpils and 40% for Rīgas FS, with clean sheet rates of 50% (BFC) and 60% (Rīgas), indicating that in half or more of matches one side keeps a clean sheet. Both teams concede on average under 1 goal per game (0.83 and 0.8), and although the league average BTTS is 57%, defensive signals dominate. Rīgas FS has a strong attack in form — 15 goals in the last 5 matches (3.0 avg, last5 xG_for 2.03) — while BFC has only 4 goals in their last 5 (0.8 avg, last5 xG_for 1.46), so it’s more likely only the visitors will be effective. Based on this I assess BTTS at 35% (Yes) and 65% (No) and recommend the 'No' tip as the strongest signal.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Based on average xG: the home side generates 1.90 xG against the opponent’s defense allowing 0.66, yielding an expected ~1.28 goals; the visitors have 2.14 xG against the home defense allowing 0.87, i.e. ~1.51 goals, totaling ≈2.79 goals. With a sum of 2.79, the Poisson distribution gives about a 77% chance of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5), about 53% for at least 3 goals (Over 2.5) and about 31% for at least 4 goals (Over 3.5). Seasonally BFC Daugavpils scores 2.67 goals on average, but in the last 5 matches only 0.8 per match, while Rīgas FS averages 1.8 goals this season but 3.0 per match in the last 5 (15 goals in 5 games), which increases the visitors’ scoring potential. The hosts have higher efficiency (average shots on target 6.0 and conversion rate 16%) compared to the visitors (6.4 shots on target and 10% conversion), and both teams have 100% of matches with >0.5 goals; the league average is 2.96 goals and 51% Over 2.5, which further supports the goals scenario. Recommendation: play Over 1.5 (line 1.5, side “over”) — the projected 77% is the strongest signal versus 53% for Over 2.5 and 31% for Over 3.5.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Rīgas FS appear to be the favourites: they have a 100% win rate this season and average 3.0 points per match versus the hosts' 2.17, with an xG of 2.14 compared to BFC Daugavpils’ 1.90. The visitors lead at the break in 60% of their seasonal matches and in 40% of their last 5, while the hosts led at the break only 33% seasonally and 0% in their last 5. In the last 5 matches the visitors averaged 1.4 goals by half-time, the hosts 0.0, which increases the probability that Rīgas FS will have the lead after 45 minutes. Although the hosts score on average 1.67 goals in second halves, the visitors concede only 0.2 goals after the break, so a turnaround looks difficult. On this basis the strongest signal from the data is a Half-Time/Full-Time lead for the visitors and a visitors’ win (2/2).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| BFC Daugavpils | Rīgas FS | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 37% | 36% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.29 | 0.37 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Rīgas FS is 160% better for: last-5 form.
1 pts / match - BFC Daugavpils · 2.6 pts / match - Rīgas FS
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Rīgas FS is 79% better for: goals scored per match.
1.27 goals / match - BFC Daugavpils · 2.27 goals / match - Rīgas FS
Rīgas FS is 100% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.64 goals / match - BFC Daugavpils · 0.82 goals / match - Rīgas FS
BFC Daugavpils scores in 82% of matches (9 of 11 matches), while Rīgas FS keeps a clean sheet in 55% (6 of 11 matches).
Rīgas FS scores in 91% of matches (10 of 11 matches), while BFC Daugavpils keeps a clean sheet in 18% (2 of 11 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - BFC Daugavpils
Over / Under - Rīgas FS
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Rīgas FS is 27% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.36 pts / match - BFC Daugavpils · 1.73 pts / match - Rīgas FS
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
BFC Daugavpils - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 27% of matches and wins 36%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.9 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Rīgas FS - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 45% of matches and wins 82%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.0 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 0.2 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 20% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 20% |
| No goal | 100% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -1 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 2.2 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 60% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 80% |
| No goal | 40% | 0% |
| Goal difference | +3 | +6 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (7 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): -5 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (5 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): +4 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
BFC Daugavpils
Rīgas FS
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Virsliga).
Teams vs league
| BFC Daugavpils | Liga | Rīgas FS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.91 | 3.03 | • 3.09 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 64% | 59% | ▼ 36% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 45% | 53% | ▼ 45% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 18% | 21% | ▲ 55% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 55% | 75% | ▼ 73% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 100% | 86% | ▼ 73% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (5): BFC Daugavpils 0 - 0 - 5 Rīgas FS. Average goals 5.60, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of BFC Daugavpils vs Rīgas FS?
The Virsliga match finished BFC Daugavpils 0:1 Rīgas FS. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between BFC Daugavpils and Rīgas FS?
In the last 5 head-to-head matches BFC Daugavpils won 0, Rīgas FS won 5 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 5.60 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before BFC Daugavpils vs Rīgas FS?
BFC Daugavpils score 1.27 goals per game on average and Rīgas FS 2.27. The Virsliga average is 3.03 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 53% of games. Both teams score in 64% of BFC Daugavpils's matches and 36% of Rīgas FS's.
What form are BFC Daugavpils and Rīgas FS in?
Over the last 5 games BFC Daugavpils have a 1-2-2 record (1.00 points per game) and Rīgas FS 4-1-0 (2.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for BFC Daugavpils vs Rīgas FS?
The statistical background for BFC Daugavpils vs Rīgas FS — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.