Bijelo Brdo vs Hrvace: match statistics

Bijelo Brdo sit 3rd, having won 3 of their 5 matches this season and collected 10 points from their last five games, while Hrvace are 16th with a record of 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats. The hosts are unbeaten in all three home matches, winning 67% of them and conceding just 0.33 goals per game, whereas the visitors have lost all three away fixtures and conceded an average of 2.33 goals. Bijelo Brdo consistently create chances, averaging 5 shots on target with an xG of 1.49, while Hrvace generate just 0.99 xG away from home and score an average of 0.33 goals. In addition, the visitors have failed to score in 67% of their away matches, while the hosts have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their home games. The advantage in form, defensive organisation and quality of attacking chances clearly points to a Bijelo Brdo victory.

The BTTS - No scenario is clearly more likely, as Hrvace averages just 0.33 goals per match, and only 0.4 over their last five games. The visitors failed to score in 67% of their matches, while Bijelo Brdo kept a clean sheet in 50% of their appearances, significantly limiting the visitors’ chances of finding the net. BTTS has occurred in 50% of the hosts’ matches so far, but in only 33% of Hrvace’s games, while the rate for both teams over their last five matches is just 40%. Bijelo Brdo are in better form, recording 6 goals scored and 4 conceded in their last five matches, whereas Hrvace have a 2:11 record and a run of four consecutive defeats. Although the visitors’ weak defence could allow the hosts to score, Hrvace’s low xG of 0.96 and just 2 shots on target per match indicate that at least one team is unlikely to find the net.

Bijelo Brdo have averaged 1.2 goals scored over their last 5 matches, while Hrvace have conceded as many as 2.2 goals during that period, giving the hosts a realistic chance of scoring one or two goals. However, the visitors are clearly limited offensively: they have averaged just 0.4 goals across their last five fixtures and have not scored more than one goal in any match this season. Bijelo Brdo have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their matches, while Hrvace have failed to score in 67% of their games, reducing the likelihood of a high-scoring game from both sides. Although the visitors’ defence concedes an average of 2.33 goals, the projected total of 2.10 goals and Hrvace’s lack of consistent finishing provide the strongest support for Under 3.5 goals.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Bijelo Brdo victory at full-time, as the hosts have collected 10 points from their last five matches, while Hrvace have managed just one. Both teams are fairly cautious before the break: each has averaged 0.4 goals scored in the first half across their last five matches, with no more than one goal scored before half-time in four of Bijelo Brdo’s five appearances and three of Hrvace’s five. After the break, the hosts’ advantage increases significantly, as they average 0.8 goals scored and only 0.2 conceded, whereas the visitors have averaged no goals scored and 1.6 conceded. Hrvace have lost four of their last five matches and concede an average of 2.2 goals per game, increasing the likelihood that an even start will turn into a home advantage. Furthermore, Bijelo Brdo have won the second half in 40% of their recent matches, while Hrvace have not won a single one, which is why the X/1 outcome has the strongest statistical support.