Blackburn Rovers vs Millwall: match statistics

Millwall sit 7th, while Blackburn are only 17th, and the visitors have won 3 of their last 5 matches compared with just one victory for the hosts. The London side create significantly more chances away from home, averaging 19.5 shots and an xG of 1.88, compared with Blackburn’s 9 shots and xG of 1.13 at home. The hosts remain dangerous in attack, scoring an average of 1.5 goals in home matches and failing to score in none of them, but their defence allows opponents an xG of 2.07 and concedes 1.5 goals per game. Millwall have also been more clinical recently, scoring 9 goals in their last five league fixtures compared with Blackburn’s 5, so despite their own defensive issues, the visitors should have the better chance of securing victory.

The scenario of both teams scoring is primarily supported by Millwall’s attacking output: the visitors average 1.50 goals away from home, have not recorded a single scoreless match on the road, and post a high average xG of 1.88. Blackburn have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their home matches, but in their last five games they allowed opponents an xG of 1.70 and conceded an average of 1.40 goals, weakening this defensive argument. The hosts should also be able to exploit Millwall’s defensive problems, as the visitors concede as many as 2.50 goals per away match and allow 1.46 xG, while Blackburn average 4 shots on target. The BTTS - Yes pick is further supported by Blackburn’s current run, with BTTS landing in 80% of their last five matches, although Millwall’s 20% and the hosts’ 0% seasonal BTTS rates call for moderate rather than extreme confidence.

Both teams have surpassed the 1.5-goal threshold in 100% of their league matches so far, while the league-wide average stands at 2.87 goals per game. In their last five matches, Blackburn conceded an average of 1.4 goals, whereas Millwall scored 1.8, strengthening the case for an away goal. Blackburn created chances worth an average of 1.33 xG at home, while Millwall allowed opponents an average of 1.46 xG away from home. The visitors average 19.5 shots per game, including 4 on target, so they should regularly test the hosts’ defence. The strongest selection is Over 1.5 goals, as even a cautious projection of 2.75 goals clearly points to at least two goals.

Millwall are in clearly better current form: they have won 3 of their last 5 matches and scored an average of 1.8 goals in those games, while Blackburn have won only 1 match, scored 1.0 goal and conceded 1.4 on average. The visitors led at the break in 60% of their last five matches, whereas the hosts have not gone into half-time ahead on any occasion; Blackburn failed to score before the break during this period and conceded an average of 0.8 goals. Millwall average 19.5 shots compared with Blackburn’s 11.67, while their xG stands at 1.88 versus the hosts’ 1.33, further supporting the scenario of an early advantage for the visitors. Although Blackburn score an average of 2.33 goals at home, Millwall have a 50% away win rate, while the hosts’ poor recent form points towards the visitors maintaining their lead until full-time. The most likely outcome therefore remains 1/1, with Millwall leading at both half-time and full-time.