Blooming vs Guabirá: match statistics

Both teams have an identical record in the last 5 matches: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses, which translates to 1.4 points per game for each side. Blooming scored 6 goals in those 5 matches (1.2 per game) and conceded 8 (1.6 per game), while Guabirá scored 8 goals (1.6 per game) and conceded 12 (2.4 per game). In practice this means Blooming has the better defense – conceding on average 0.8 goals fewer per game, while Guabirá’s attacking edge is about 0.4 goals more per game. The absence of xG and shot statistics in the provided dataset (values 0) makes it difficult to assess chance quality, so I base the decision on finishing efficiency and defensive balance from the last 5 fixtures. Based on this, I predict a narrow home win for Blooming, although the risk of a draw is material given both teams’ identical 1.4 PPG.

Both teams have a BTTS rate of 40% in their last 5 matches (Blooming 40%, Guabirá 40%), meaning both teams scored in 2 of 5 matches for each side. Blooming averages 1.2 goals scored and concedes 1.6 in this period, while Guabirá averages 1.6 scored and concedes 2.4, indicating a looser defense from Guabirá. xG comparison shows Blooming xG 1.4 versus xG against Guabirá 1.27, and Guabirá xG 1.93 versus xG against Blooming 1.07, so both teams generate more xG than the opponent’s defense allows, increasing the likelihood of goals. In absolute numbers Guabirá scored 8 and conceded 12 in the last 5, and Blooming scored 6 and conceded 8, which together (avg 1.2–1.6 scored and 1.6–2.4 conceded) point to an elevated risk of both teams scoring. Based on this I assign 65% probability to BTTS - Yes and 35% to No and recommend a 'Yes' bet as the strongest signal driven by xG advantage and higher average goals conceded by opponents.

In the last 5 matches Blooming scored an average of 1.2 goals and conceded 1.6, while Guabirá scored 1.6 and conceded 2.4 — together averaging 2.8 goals per match. xG confirms the offensive potential: xG for Blooming is 1.4, for Guabirá 1.93, with xG against of 1.07 and 1.27 respectively, suggesting a combined xG range of about 2.8–3.3. Both teams had 60% of matches over 2.5 goals in their last 5 fixtures, and the total goals scored in the last 5 are 6 and 8 respectively, which increases the likelihood of another higher-scoring game. Based on this I expect 1.20 goals for Blooming and 1.60 for Guabirá (total 2.80), so the strongest signal from the data is an 'over' play at the 1.5 line. I estimate the probability of over 1.5 at 88% (under 12%), over 2.5 at 65% and over 3.5 at 38%, which reflects both goal averages and xG values.

In the last 5 matches, the most common Half-Time state was a draw – Blooming were tied at the break in 60% of games, as were Guabirá (60%), and first-half goal averages are only 0.2 for Blooming and 0.4 for Guabirá. Blooming kept a clean sheet at Half-Time in 80% of those fixtures, confirming low scoring activity in the opening 45 minutes. Significantly more goals fall after the break: second-half goal averages are 1.8 in Blooming’s matches and 2.6 in Guabirá’s matches, with Blooming themselves scoring on average 1.0 goal after Half-Time while Guabirá concede 1.4 on average after the break. Additionally, Guabirá concede an average of 2.4 goals per match versus 1.6 conceded by Blooming, so the most likely scenario is a draw at Half-Time followed by a Blooming Full-Time win (X/1).