Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl.: match statistics

Bohemians average 60% possession at home, 5.55 shots on target and xG 1.74 with an average of 1.27 goals scored and only 9% of matches without a goal, indicating consistent presence in the opponent's penalty area. St Patrick's away record shows 50% possession, 4.2 shots on target, xG 1.61 and an average of 1.1 goals per game, but they fail to score in 50% of away matches. In the last 5 matches the visitors averaged 2.0 points per game and conceded only 1 goal in total (0.2 per game), while Bohemians averaged 1.2 points per game and over that period scored and conceded 1.8 goals per game. Bohemians' key advantage is a higher number of shots on target (5.55 vs 4.2) and superior xG (1.74 vs 1.61), whereas St Patrick's compensate with defensive form (only 1 goal conceded in their last 5 matches). Due to home advantage, higher xG and a low percentage of matches without a goal for the hosts, I give them a slight edge and predict a Bohemians win.

Bohemians average 2.18 goals per game this season with xG 2.21, have kept a clean sheet in 45% of matches, and their season BTTS rate is 36%. St Patrick's average 1.10 goals with xG 1.61, season BTTS 40%, but in the last 5 matches they recorded no BTTS and conceded only 1 goal total (0.2 per game). A strong argument for BTTS - Yes is Bohemians’ recent form: in their last 5 matches 80% featured BTTS and they conceded 9 goals (1.8 per game). xG comparison — Bohemians xG_for 2.21 vs xG_against_away 1.22 and St Patrick's xG_for 1.61 vs xG_against_home 1.15 — suggests both teams create scoring chances. Additionally the league has an overall BTTS rate of 59% and an average of 2.72 goals per game, which increases the likelihood of both teams scoring; therefore I favor the "both teams to score" scenario at 65% versus 35% for No Goal.

The xG-based model gives Bohemians 1.72 xG (2.21 xG attacking for the home side vs 1.22 xG conceded from St Patrick's) and St Patrick's 1.38 xG (1.61 xG attacking for the away side vs 1.15 xG conceded from Bohemians), totaling 3.10 expected goals. With λ=3.10 the Poisson distribution yields roughly an 81.5% chance of at least 2 goals, hence Over 1.5 is rated at ~82%. The probability of over 2.5 is about 59.9% (~60%), and over 3.5 about 37.5% (~38%), so the 2.5 line is moderately favorable while 3.5 is less certain. Additionally, Bohemians average 20.73 shots and 6.55 shots on target per match with an 11% conversion, whereas St Patrick's average 14.3 shots and 4.2 shots on target with an 8% conversion; in the last 5 matches Bohemians have scored 9 and conceded 9 goals (1.8 avg), and St Patrick's have scored 5 and conceded 1 (1.0/0.2). Based on these data, the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (82%), therefore I recommend backing the over at 1.5.

The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a Bohemians victory at full-time (X/1) — I assigned the highest weight to this outcome. Seasonally Bohemians have a draw at half-time in 45% of matches (drawingAtHTPercentage_home = 45.0) and they average 0.73 goals before the break versus St Patrick's 0.6, which favors a draw or a slim lead at the break. After half-time the home side score on average 1.45 goals (scored_2hg_avg_home = 1.45) while the visitors only 0.5 (scored_2hg_avg_away = 0.5); the hosts concede 0.09 goals after the break versus 0.7 conceded by St Patrick's, which significantly increases the chance of a turnaround/strengthening of the result in the second half. Additionally Bohemians win 73% of matches (winPercentage_home = 73.0), have an xG of 2.21 versus 1.61 and average 2.18 goals scored per match versus the visitors' 1.1, confirming superiority in the final result. For these reasons X/1 received the highest probability (29%), with 1/1 (29%) supported as a realistic alternative; scenarios favorable to the visitors were rated considerably lower.