Botafogo vs Atlético PR: match statistics

Botafogo’s overall run is clearly weaker, having scored just 3 goals in their last 5 matches and won only one of them, but they have been solid at home: averaging 1.8 goals per match and losing just 20% of their fixtures. Atlético PR sit 3rd and have collected 1.6 points per game across their last five matches, compared with Botafogo’s 1.0, while conceding only 20 goals all season against their opponents’ 34. However, the visitors’ away form is a concern: they lose 45% of their matches, have a -2 goal difference and average just 1.0 goal scored. At home, Botafogo create more high-quality chances, recording an xG of 1.69 compared with Atlético PR’s 1.15 away from home, while also attempting 15.2 shots per match compared with the visitors’ 9.82. Botafogo’s home attacking advantage and their opponents’ poor away results slightly shift the forecast towards a home win, although their high draw rate of 40% leaves a significant risk of the points being shared.

The BTTS scenario is not more likely, as Atlético PR averages only 1.00 goal away from home, while Botafogo concedes just 0.58 goals per match at home. The hosts have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their matches, whereas the visitors have failed to score in 36% of their games, clearly increasing the likelihood that one side will remain goalless. This trend is reinforced by recent form: BTTS occurred in only 40% of Botafogo’s last five matches and in just 20% of Atlético PR’s, while Botafogo scored only 3 goals during this period. Although the teams’ latest xG figures stand at 1.51 and 1.38, actual finishing efficiency remains limited, and the season BTTS averages of 50% for Botafogo and 45% for Atlético PR are still below the league average of 57%. The most likely outcome is therefore one in which Botafogo capitalizes on its defensive advantage or one of the teams fails to score.

The match profile points to a moderate goal tally: Botafogo average 1.67 goals at home, while Atlético PR concede just 1.18 goals away. The hosts are particularly solid defensively at their own stadium, allowing opponents only 0.58 goals per game, while the visitors score an average of 1.00 goals on the road. In their last five matches, both teams recorded Over 2.5 goals in only 20% of cases, and Botafogo scored just 3 goals during that period. Historically, the 3.5-goal line has been exceeded in 17% of Botafogo matches and just 9% of Atlético PR games, which clearly strengthens the case for Under 3.5 goals.

Botafogo have a clear seasonal home advantage: they score an average of 1.67 goals, concede only 0.58, and win 67% of their matches, while Atlético PR lose 45% of their away fixtures. The hosts led at the break in 42% of their matches, whereas the visitors went into half-time trailing in as many as 64% of their away games; additionally, Atlético PR concede an average of 0.91 goals before the break, compared with Botafogo’s 0.33. The quality of chances also favours Botafogo, whose average xG stands at 1.55 compared with their opponents’ 1.15, while their shots on target average 5.42 against 3.64. Botafogo are particularly solid after half-time, scoring an average of 0.92 goals and conceding just 0.25, which supports their ability to protect a lead established before the break. The hosts’ last five matches have been weaker, with only 0.6 goals scored per game, but their full-season profile and Atlético PR’s clear first-half weakness still provide the strongest support for the Botafogo lead at half-time and their eventual victory: 1/1.