Botafogo vs Fluminense: match statistics

Botafogo enter the match in significantly better form: they have won 3 of their last 5 matches, scoring 7 goals and conceding just 4. Fluminense remain unbeaten in five matches, but all of them ended in draws, while their attacking output during this period amounts to just 3 goals. At home, Botafogo score an average of 1.89 goals per match, compared with Fluminense’s 1.20 goals away from home, and the hosts also register more shots on target (5.33 versus 4.50). The quality of chances created also slightly favors Botafogo, whose average home xG stands at 1.63, while Fluminense record 1.40 away from home. The visitors enjoy an average of 58% possession, but have won only 20% of their away matches and have a negative goal difference of -2. Therefore, the hosts should be considered more likely to win, although the risk of a draw remains significant.

Seasonal BTTS figures are notably high: Botafogo have recorded BTTS in 73% of their matches, while Fluminense have done so in 70%, compared with the league average of 57%. The hosts create a high volume of chances, averaging 2.03 xG and 6.91 shots on target per match, while Fluminense allow opponents 1.59 xG and concede an average of 1.40 goals. Fluminense have scored only 0.6 goals per match across their last five fixtures, but their current xG stands at 1.72, while Botafogo have allowed opponents 1.75 xG over the same period, sustaining the visitors’ chances of finding the net. Both teams have seen BTTS in 3 of their last 5 matches, making a goal for each side more likely than a BTTS - No outcome, meaning at least one team fails to score.

Botafogo create a high volume of chances at home, averaging 2.03 xG and 18.0 shots per match, but Fluminense have conceded just 0.6 goals per game across their last five fixtures. The visitors have also scored only 0.6 goals per match during this period, while Botafogo have conceded an average of 0.8, limiting the prospects of a very high-scoring game. On a seasonal basis, matches involving both teams have finished below 3.5 goals in 73% of Botafogo’s games and 80% of Fluminense’s, compared with the league average of 2.59 goals. Over 1.5 goals remains likely, with this line landing in 73% of the hosts’ matches and 90% of the visitors’ matches; however, the estimated 2.30 goals primarily points towards an edge on Under 3.5.

Botafogo have a clear statistical edge: they average 2.18 points per match, win 64% of their games and lose just 9%, while Fluminense win 20% and lose 40% of their matches. The hosts create more chances, as reflected by their average xG of 2.03 compared with 1.40, as well as 6.91 shots on target per match versus 4.50 for the visitors. In the first halves, Botafogo led in 45% of their matches and conceded just 0.27 goals, whereas Fluminense have conceded an average of 0.50 goals before half-time away from home. Recent form also favours the hosts, who have won 3 of their last 5 matches, while Fluminense have drawn all 5. The most likely scenario is therefore for Botafogo to take the lead at the break and maintain their advantage until the final whistle: HT/FT 1/1.